Sprinters, boxers, quarterbacks. Timing and rest between reps are essential.
Horses like to get into a rhythm, just like any other top athletes. And with the Preakness Stakes coming so quickly after the Kentucky Derby, it can throw even the best thoroughbreds off.
Same with bettors who blindly back the Derby winner when betting the Preakness.
Check out Lucky Rebel’s latest Derby Standings.
Derby Winners Have Won the Preakness Only 50% of the Time Since 1990
The Derby Hangover doesn’t just apply to the winning owners, jockeys, or trainers.
It applies to horse betting fans all over the place.
Seduced by Triple Crown talk, casual – as in, six weeks of the year casual – bettors like to select the Kentucky Derby winner as their Preakness pick.
The problem is, six weeks out of 52 doesn’t make anyone an expert in anything. Horses especially.
But it’s a coin flip in reality. Some fans don’t mind that. A great horse is as good a pick as any other horse to win the Preakness, right? For some, that’s the end of the thought process.
For Lucky Rebel horse racing fans and their smart money, that’s not enough.
That 50-50 shot of a horse being the winner of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes is a lot less than public noise would make you believe. You almost start to think the Triple Crown is happening even before the gates open for the second race.
After a Derby win, especially a dominant one by multiple lengths, the media machine goes to work.
Suddenly we see that horse’s name everywhere for the next 14 days until Pimlico. Makes sense that people just auto-click that name when it comes to the Preakness bet slip.
Odds are good that the odds are pretty bad for the Derby winner too.
The over-bet horse has inflated chances by this point, with the Sportsbooks more than willing to feed a hungry public narrative.
Fading the Kentucky Derby winner at the Preakness is the move, unless you like coin flips. There are a number of other reasons why.
Two Weeks Between Races is Brutal
Performance drops off for horses on two weeks rest. We know this.
Horses running on 3 weeks’ rest between races show noticeably better win and place percentages. They also bring in a higher amount of average prize money per start compared to those rested for just 2 weeks.
We’ll be honest. We’re not entirely sure why the Preakness Stakes has chosen to stage the race just 14 days after the Derby. Why handicap the quality of your own race? Then again, who are we to argue with 70 years of tradition? That’s when they set the more or less permanent dates just 2 weeks apart.
But today’s horses aren’t built the same.
The modern conditioning that they undergo is way harder on them than in the past, when a couple of massages and some carrots did the trick.
Today, they need longer recovery. Even up to 4-6 weeks between races is suggested in some racing circles.
Lucky Rebel players will do better to fade not just the favorites, but some of the other top runners at the Derby too. At least for the outright win.
Sharp Bettors Look for Fresh Horses
Horses skipping the Derby often hit the board in the Preakness with better value odds.
Although the Triple Crown still captures the public imagination more than almost anything else in horse racing, it’s becoming less of a thing for owners and trainers.
Like NBA load management, trainers are opting to sit out the Derby for the Preakness.
They do this because of that relatively harsh 2-week rest period. They don’t want to risk injury.
The Preakness also has less strict entry requirements. Even though there are 20 horses running at Churchill Downs, they are picked from a large pool of talent. Some just don’t make the cut and have to wait till Pimlico. (Don’t necessarily fade those horses who didn’t make it into the Derby).
Then there’s the chaos theory. Some trainers find their horse is more suited to the smaller field at the Preakness. Less bumping and banging than the scene coming out of the gates at the Derby.
But most of all, bettors and trainers are all looking for an edge.
And at the Preakness, fresh legs are the best edge they can find. New shooters are the ones who didn’t run in Kentucky but have some of the freshest legs around.
They can fly under the radar when it comes to public money. The Derby winner and some close runners-up will grab more of the headlines, and more of the betting volume. They’re over-bet.
But the stats on Derby skippers? They’re not horsing around.
Six of the last eight Preakness winners didn’t run in the Derby. Including the last 5 straight. Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner, was one of the two exceptions.
We know what that means for the smart money.
Unless there’s a Justify-like absolute unit running in both races, check the lines for those horses that gave Churchill Downs a miss, and give them a good look.
Ways to Play the Preakness
On top of the non-Derby entrants, Lucky Rebel bettors can cash in on the Preakness Stakes with a few solid strategies.
– Build exacta, trifecta, or superfecta bets that combine well-rested contenders (the ones who gave the Derby a pass) with second-tier Derby runners. These second-tier horses will be attracting less attention.
The exotics don’t need to be a shot in the dark. Leave that for the casual bettors. Some homework will sharpen up your bets.
– Late market moves also matter. With up to 14 horses in the running at the Preakness, it’s easier to track the lines. The most recent race had only 9 horses going.
Smart money might be placing money on these lesser-known horses. Try to find out why and make the move if it fits.
– Make horses with tactical speed or good stalking ability a priority. Pimlico is a shorter race with tighter corners. Deep closers have less of a home stretch to work with, so fade them.