The Triple Crown of horse racing is up there with the Super Bowl and World Series when it comes to public excitement and build-up.
The difference is those other sporting events happen every year.
The Triple Crown should get even more pub, seeing as how rare it is.
And horse bettors should rake in even more when it happens for the same reason.
Emphasis on should.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
American Pharoah Paid $7.80 to Win the Belmont
Who really cashes in when a horse pulls off the Triple Crown?
It’s a feat that has happened just 13 times since 1919. That’s just under every 9 years on average. Or way longer individually. American Pharoah’s 2015 Crown win ended a 37-year drought.
You’d figure something that rare has a big payday for horse betting fans who lay out the money every year it’s got a shot at happening.
But it’s really the trainers, the owners, and sometimes the jockey who cash big after a Triple Crown happens.
Sure, bettors still do well on the Belmont, the final race for the Crown, but they don’t cash like you’d think.
Why is this the case?
It’s the flattening of the odds from all the public money pouring in for the Triple Crown to actually happen. People want some piece of the action, just to attach themselves somehow to the moment.
Lucky Rebel bettors? Fans, sure. Go horses. But not so emotional that it clouds smart betting strategy or going with odds that have such little value.
American Pharoah paying $7.80 on a $2 win bet is pretty underwhelming, given the moment. Only bettors going in with real size would have been excited with the payout.
Overbet Favorites Kill Exotic Value
With so much money on the winner, exactas, trifectas, and superfectas actually pay far less than in regular horse races.It’s a weird situation.
For all the excitement and buzz that a potential Triple Crown brings to the overall public and the attention it draws to horse racing, it also bites for bettors.
Because the potential winner absorbs so much of the public’s attention (and cash), horses filling out the lower slots make little difference unless a total outsider sneaks into the frame.
It’s not just the winner, but the other top favorites too. There’s just too much heat and hype from casuals going around that value dries up.
As an example, if the expected horses sweep the top spots, $1 trifectas can pay $40 instead of $400 or $4,000. There’s only so much money in the pool for the favorite plays – it has to be split between so many people.
For American Pharaoh’s epic Belmont run, the $2 trifecta paid $35.80, and the $2 superfecta paid $145.
In other races, usually not the big three, these bets would pay into the hundreds or even thousands.
The books are fine with it of course, but the edge-seeking bettor can find themselves sidelined.
One trick is to go wider with exotics than you normally would. Use smaller amounts too.
Think about it. With an exacta, when the overwhelming favorite is paired with the most likely second choice, the odds are already going to produce anything more than double your cash.
That payout is way less than a Belmont race that is won by a mid-priced horse or a longshot, and often in these races the whole field is chaotic at the finish.
That means your wide exotics have a better shot.
Also, save those extra dollars you kept by going smaller, and observe the last-minute betting activity. You’re watching for horses whose odds suddenly shorten dramatically, right before a race. That shows where the sharp money is going.
If you already have that horse, great. If not, and the payout is solid, lay some action on it. If the shorter odds add up to an ROI that makes the juice not worth the squeeze, fade that horse.
And live for another day where overbetting is not an issue.
Sharps Pick Spots to Fade
Value in betting is all about finding the edge that the betting public doesn’t, or that the books have missed.
Value is also all about ROI.
Sure, American Pharoah looked like a generational talent and was probably getting that Triple Crown.
But the road to the Crown is littered with “probably” horses. So, is that low odds – less than 3-1 in Pharoah’s case – really worth it?
He could have still lost. There are 8-12 horses running in the Belmont Stakes, so anything can happen.
For any year where the Crown is in play, expect to see odds at the Belmont for the contender that are not going to get your blood flowing.
Bottom line: Skipping low-value win bets and targeting other pools often yields better ROI.
Ok, put a token bet down to hedge if you want.
Overall though, fade the favorite, especially if he looks vulnerable as a sprinter. It’s the Belmont Stakes, where the fastest and most tactical horses often empty out towards the finish. But those other pools?
Look at the exotics. Especially in a chaotic field where the Crown contender has some credible mid-priced or longshot rivals.
Put in some action on strong closers in a boxed trifecta or superfecta. Even if they’re longshots. Even if they pay less than the usual in a less-hyped race.
Those closers might also have skipped the Preakness and have fresher legs than the Triple Crown contender.
Spot overlays. If all the money is pouring in on the favorite, and the books are happy to hype it up even more, another horse’s odds might slide lower than they should be. Suddenly a 4-1 horse is getting overlooked and the odds move to 8-1.
Even if the favorite still wins, having that overlooked horse in second or third in an exacta or trifecta can pay a lot more, because the public money wasn’t there.
We’re all geared towards picking winners.
In horse racing, the sharps spot the value in other ways.