Betting the Bounce-Back: Gane’s Mental and Tactical Adjustments at UFC 321
Tons of UFC fights over the years in lower weight classes have brought fans to the Octagon and on pay-per-view.
But nothing moves the needle like the heavyweights.
The Ciryl Gane vs. Tom Aspinall fight at UFC 321 is one of the biggest fights in years – at least since Gane’s last in 2023, a loss to Jon Jones.
Because of that loss, this UFC 321 main event also comes with everyone’s favorite storyline: redemption. Rocky. Ali. The Cubs. The Backstreet Boys. We’re all in.
But is Gane just a cool story? Or can bettors count on him this time around?
Mindset Shift and Training Overhaul
After that loss to Jon Jones, Gane found himself at a crossroads.
He was 33 and was looking at the back end of a solid UFC career. He could have hung it up and moved on. But he felt he couldn’t go out like that. Jones demolished him with a guillotine choke submission in the first round.
It’s clear which direction he took. Gane made major changes in his physical and fight prep. He worked directly on his biggest defensive weaknesses and trained with world-class grapplers. His Muay Thai base has always made him great on his feet for a heavyweight. But the training overhaul had to be done, and he focused on mat control, ground escapes, and submission defense.
Has it been enough? Do those things even matter when facing Aspinall, who’s a KO specialist?
In his two fights since the Jones fight, Gane showed some improvements. It’s up to UFC bettors to decide if those were convincing enough to lay some money on him against Aspinall.
Gane’s Style Evolution and Strategy Shift
Gane’s fighting style was built on agility, range control, and cautious calculation. It got him the interim title and enough respect as a heavyweight striker. But some fight fans and pro critics think his technical sparring isn’t enough, especially against a KO specialist like Aspinall.
They’re also not sure if it’s a between-the-ears issue- a trait that led to dominant but sometimes risk-averse performances. His losses against Francis Ngannou and Jones were high-pressure, celebrity-style fights. He had the skills to match either one but fell short in both.
Sharps will also factor in that the only losses on Gane’s record came during undisputed title fights.
To evolve and change strategy, Gane’s camp had these changes made to his training.
- Expanded Grappling Focus: Previously, Gane’s ground game was reactive. He could get the job done but wasn’t ever driving the bus. He went hard in the last 10 months+ on wrestling and jiu-jitsu immersion with specialist coaches.
- Striking Sharpness and Power Integration: While Gane’s footwork has always been a plus, he’s focused on creating decisive attacks instead of just point-scoring. He showed some ability to press forward when openings arise. In the Volkov fights, he beat the Russian in significant strikes, 43-39. He’ll be looking for more of that same edge against Aspinall.
- Adaptation Under Fire: Gane’s new regime puts special emphasis on composure in adversity, simulated through sparring sessions against opponents with diverse, unpredictable skill sets. Training with high-level grapplers and kickboxers both caters to Aspinall’s strengths and hardens Gane’s ability to adjust on the fly.
The Volkov decision wasn’t popular with a lot of fighters (even Dana White told Volkov he got robbed by the judges), but the win over Serghei Spivac after the Jones fight showed how Gane worked to improve his weaknesses. He’s improved his takedown defense and showed new bursts of offensive pressure. That win over Spivac was a second round KO/TKO, and Gane dominated the significant strikes game 69% to 25%.
UFC 321: Betting Redemption or Tom’s Time?
Gane and Aspinall’s records are not that different. Gane comes into the fight at 13-2-0, while Aspinall is 15-3-0.
Same with the height and weight. Aspinall has 10 pounds on Gane, but at 255 vs 245 that shouldn’t make the difference. The Brit is 6’5” vs Gane’s 6’4”, but Gane actually has a 3-inch reach advantage.
But Aspinall is seen as a fighter on the rise while the books and the betting public are fading Gane’s age and recent record. His last fight, a split decision win against Alexander Volkov in December 2024, didn’t give UFC betting fans much confidence. This is why Aspinall currently sits at -355 to Gane’s +280.
So when you look at Gane’s comeback journey, is it enough to pick him as the underdog?
When they say styles make fights, it gets a lot tighter than the odds suggest. It gets down to matchup factors.
- Movement: Both Gane and Aspinall use footwork like middleweights, not lumbering heavyweights. Gane does have more measured range control, but he’ll be tested by Aspinall’s explosive entries and commitment to finishing.
- Grappling and Recovery: The X-factor is how much Gane’s defense has improved since his Jones fight. Against Aspinall’s strong wrestling and ground-and-pound ability, he’s going to get tested. If you think Gane locked in and improved enough in the past two years, his +280 could make for a solid payout.
- Striking: While Gane is the more proven technical kickboxer, Aspinall’s hands can’t be ignored. Gane brings accuracy and frequency. Aspinall brings pure power. Those 12 KOs out of 15 wins are no joke. For live betting and prop bets, watch the first round to see which fighter is bringing more of their striking advantage to the Octagon.
Like fighting styles, placing bets on the main event at UFC 321 might come down to betting style.
Aspinall’s athletic edge and KO power are key for sharps who like aggressive, younger champions. (Although just three years difference doesn’t seem like a game-changer for two guys in their 30’s). He’s also won his last three fights, all in the first round.
Gane’s shift in strategy and training might give him the edge if the fight goes longer. The smart money, though, won’t get sucked in by the redemption storyline or any emotion. They’ll stick with the facts.