Polls mislead. The betting market moves faster and hits harder. Smart bettors follow the momentum, not the headlines. History shows value in early primaries, VP picks, and fading mainstream narratives.
Betting on politics isn’t about who’s leading in the polls. Polls are for boomers.
It’s about who’s catching the latest momentum and grabbing the best odds before the polls and markets react.
Check out the latest Political odds at Lucky Rebel
Markets Predicted Outcomes Polls Missed
Markets don’t wait.
While polling companies complete their field tests, no matter how regularly, the betting market has its own vibe-sensing skills and tools.
Ahead of the 2016 US presidential election, the national polls had Hillary Clinton with a 3-5 point lead that held more or less steady for weeks. Right up to election day.
Cue needle scratch.
Donald Trump surprised everyone – including many bothered bettors, who may not have cared about Clinton but were mourning their lost bets.
What the polls weren’t telling us, the betting markets were.
A week earlier, the Comey email issue exploded. While the polls didn’t react, many betting books saw Trump’s odds of winning go from 18% to 28% within hours.
It wasn’t until a week later that polls started to show Clinton’s slide.
A similar story happened with Brexit.
With just 48 hours until the Leave/Remain in the EU referendum, the Remain side saw its steady lead suddenly switch to a spike betting volume on the Leave side.
Headline in mainstream media still relied on the polls, which were still showing Remain as the slight leader.
Result? See you, EU.
In both these cases and may others, sharps that learned to rely on the betting market’s numbers more than the polls would have cashed if they acted fast. And they usually do.
But why is it a good idea to trust the markets rather than the polls, a tool that has been used probably since people voted with sticks?
Rumors often turn out real. We know the markets move with rumors. Social media is lightning-fast with new stories and events, often happening in real-time. A scandal’s whiff of smoke at 8pm becomes a full-blown fire by the next day. In that time, bettors will have moved their money before most people – and most pollsters – have had their morning coffee.
Inside chatter becomes outside chatter within minutes now. In line with the rumor bit, leaks and news that once stayed inside a campaign’s walls now come out for everyone to see. Privacy is dead. And betting markets love the volatility of every new bit of info, so they’ll dive in.
Wallet energy. People can say anything in a poll. Their words have little to no tangible impact. But betting markets and people playing the politics betting game have skin in the game. That means the research and data is very likely to be robust anytime a line is set or moved.
Other intangibles are more social cues and “ground-game energy”, where a campaign’s insiders and foot soldiers know how their candidate is really doing with people. They can’t be quantified by a poll.
Surveys have limitations. Conversations don’t.
They all add up to the big one: Wisdom of crowds.
Markets can harness collective intelligence: a large group of people independently assessing information tends to arrive at a more accurate forecast. In other words, real sample size. Betting markets aggregate thousands of perspectives fast. Polls feel like dinosaurs today.
For betting on politics at Lucky Rebel, our players already know to fade the polls and look for the edge.
Early Primaries Offer Big Edges
We all know that the US presidential campaigns and primaries bring the most attention and money to betting markets.
For the books, the firehose of election content that hits everyone 24/7 – on TV, social media, newspapers, people’s front lawns – is like endless free PR.
While it sounds like some glorious thing for them, it can create a massive amount of noise for politics bettors.
Where do Lucky Rebel players look to cut through it?
The first three primaries are a good spot.
No elements of a U.S. presidential campaign move lines more dramatically than Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. They can deliver price swings that can change fortunes instantly.
Crazy, right? Those 3 states combined represent 3% of the entire population of the US.
But they are key momentum makers for candidates and betting markets. Each state can swing markets fast, and smart money can use narrative swings to react quickly by hedging if they need to, or just straight cashing.
Some prime movers:
Obama vs. Clinton
In 2007, Hillary Clinton was favored around 70% on betting markets to win the Democratic nomination. Then Barack Obama won Iowa. Overnight, his odds jumped from around 30% to over 50%. The money moved fast, well before national poll averages caught up.
Biden’s Swings
Joe Biden was at the front of the pack of Democrats in 2020. But then he finished 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire. Tanked his odds below 10% on certain markets.
Then came South Carolina. Biden dominated after an endorsement from an influential Jim Clyburn. His odds on the exchanges skyrocketed from single digits to over 60% within hours of polls closing. By Super Tuesday, it was over.
Betting on early states is less about delegate numbers and more about momentum pricing.
The move? Treat primaries like innings in a baseball game. Bet before the first pitch, hedge mid-game, capitalize on big swings, and lock in profits before the final out.
VP Picks and Endorsements Move Lines
The announcement of a Vice-President to a presidential candidate’s ticket is often one of the biggest market movers in political betting.
Lucky Rebel bettors that act fast can front-run the markets and capitalize.
In 2020, Trump’s odds were at -200 in some spots before Kamala Harris was announced as Biden’s running mate.
When the actual announcement came, that number was sliced to -125. And fast.
Endorsements, like Clyburn boosting Biden in South Carolina in the example above, can also move the lines in big ways.
It pays to stay tuned in to political news during campaign season.
And it really pays to act before consensus. The odds will shorten the second an announcement or endorsement is made, so enter before the news is formal.
Remember, this is business, not politics.