Undervalued Teams with Real Paths to the MLS Cup Final
Hype and headlines are part of every big league sport, and Major League Soccer isn’t immune.
Miami, Messi, Cincinnati, Evander, the Galaxy… you see the brand names and the casual betting public eats it up. But upsets can come from nowhere (and from no-names) in the pressure-packed playoff format for MLS.
The Philadelphia Union is the lead favorite heading into the 2025 MLS Playoffs, but the format means one surprise header or a single off game and they’re done.
FC Cincinnati, San Diego, same thing. They have the big records, but the market is pricing them in already so it’s tough for the smart money to get an edge.
Every October, bettors and talking heads trip over each other trying to pick out the next MLS playoff Cinderella. The recent years have consistently provided MLS betting fans a long shot or two. Real Salt Lake in 2021 and Houston in 2023 went deep into the MLS Playoffs after barely squeaking in.
Sportsbooks and the average fans get tunnel vision on star power and seeding when it comes to MLS Cup futures, leaving sharp players a window to snag underdog value. Sharps know that finding the teams whose numbers and form are ahead of the price, and getting in on them before the bracket plays out, is the way to winnings.
Vancouver Whitecaps: Metrics over Market
Vancouver isn’t the flashiest name in the bracket. Their time zone makes the Eastern MLS fans barely recognize them. But everything beneath the surface points to a team built for October. Sharps – East Coast, Central or West Coast ones – should lean on advanced metrics for MLS playoff betting to uncover teams like Vancouver.
The Whitecaps are in the top two in both raw and expected goal differential for 2025, with an expected goals difference (xG diff) of +18.5. That gap shows up most against playoff-caliber teams, where the Whitecaps are dominant in both chances created and goals allowed.
While the Whitecaps aren’t the biggest dark horse with 18 wins on the season, there are five other teams with more wins heading into the playoffs. They’re not intimidated by the big brand names though. Back in April, they knocked out Messi and Miami from the Champions Cup, winning 5-1 on aggregate. In September, they trounced the Union 7-0. Think either of those teams are eager to play Vancouver in the playoffs?
Vancouver’s attack is of course 100x better after adding Thomas Müller, who’s given them a finisher in big moments and made opponents scramble to figure out how to adjust. The German legend has only played in 7 MLS games though, and it’s his first-ever playoff season in the league. This makes it tougher for the books to price him in, but sharps know all about his background and his ability to handle pressure (playing in front of billions during World Cup Finals for Germany should help). Müller has 3 assists and 7 goals for the Whitecaps already.
Sharps always look for matchup imbalances in any sport. And tactically, Vancouver’s style thrives in knockout soccer. They combine attacking width and depth better than most teams in the league. This takes the more disciplined (aka boring) sides out of their comfort zone and into up-and-down shootouts, where Vancouver is way more comfortable than most teams. The Whitecaps’ bracket path leans away from the top seeds until the conference finals too. And the smart money loves exploiting gaps. While many advanced stat sites give Vancouver a 16% chance of winning the MLS Cup, most books have them in the 5-6% range when you look at odds of around +600. The gap between market and metrics is always worth looking into for good betting value, especially when a team has an easier path ahead.
Columbus Crew: Dark Horse Pick
Columbus comes into the playoffs limping a little, but that gives their +2000 MLS Cup odds some cover. And there are bigger, shiner names in the East. But the deeper data is actually stronger than public perception: the Crew are close to Vancouver and LAFC on xG and goal differential, with big improvements against playoff teams since Decision Day.
The Crew’s path to go deeper into the MLS Playoffs got a boost with Sean Zawadzki back healthy. They also want to give club legend Darlington Nagbe a proper send-off. Tactically, the Crew force opponents to play their tempo, and once they disrupt the opposing team’s flow, they grab control.
Yes, it’s true that their bracket sets up with a tough opening test vs. FC Cincinnati. But they beat Cincy back in July, scoring 3 unanswered on their way to a 4-2 win. Momentum swings like that can turn the underdog’s way in a few minutes in MLS playoff games. That was following a May game where the Crew held Cincinnati to a draw. They also took down the regular season champ Philadelphia.
Keep in mind deeper stats too. Cincinnati did win 20 games, but 16 of those were by just one goal. A defensive lockdown by Columbus or a late goal could easily clear the path in a shaky Eastern conference for them to make a run.
Columbus’ playoff probability sits at 5%. We did say longshot. But their metrics are solid and a heroic last showing by (and for) Nagbe could make the difference in this best-of-three series.
The Path to the Final is also Where Value Lives
If we’re looking for underdog teams with good value before the books adjust towards the end of Round 1, it’s good to look for teams with paths away from the major powers. Vancouver would dodge LAFC and Seattle early. Columbus would avoid Miami until late in the playoffs. If you’re looking for other MLS soccer bets that have longer odds, look for the path on top of all the advanced metrics.