Momentum plays and injuries matter as much as big names
Of course Lionel Messi crushed it once again in the MLS Playoffs’ opening round. Five goals and three assists in three games? Pretty nuts. Some other big names stepped up too. But as the MLS Playoffs progress, and your MLS bets do too, be careful not to hitch your wagon to a brand name player automatically.
The Injury Wildcards: Big Names, Bigger Risks
Messi’s health looks solid heading deeper into the MLS Playoffs, so we’re not opposed to hitching that wagon to Inter Miami. But sharps need more of an edge to make any real moves in MLS betting. The value on Miami is already priced in.
Team-wise, the brand names all survived the opening round. In the Western Conference, that means the top four seeds – LAFC, San Diego FC, Minnesota United, and Vancouver.
But before you go in on the Whitecaps and their stellar 63-point regular season, check that injury list. Vancouver’s MLS Cup hopes are tangled up with Brian White’s health. Having a key striker who’s still nursing a hamstring injury is not the edge we’re looking for.
Vancouver needed a shootout to advance to the conference semis. So they’re already looking tight on offense. If USMNT star White can’t be 100%, the Whitecaps lose a critical piece of their attack, even with home-field advantage and the late-season addition of Thomas Muller. But White’s team-leading 16 goals during the season are too big a hole to fill in the single elimination matchup against LAFC on November 22nd.
Staying in the West, Minnesota United’s Kelvin Yeboah is following in White’s footsteps. And Minnesota’s attack is also in jeopardy because of it. Yeboah was the Loons’ top scorer this season too. With a hamstring injury, they pulled him out with 4 games to go in the regular season. You could put money on the Loons thinking his likely return gives the #4-ranked Loons an underdog’s shot against #1 San Diego. But hamstring injuries are tricky. One wrong move and Yeboah could be back in warmups and the Loons will migrate back to Minnesota until next season.
Check the status of your brand name favorites before the game and double-check them when you get into live MLS betting.
Lineup Gambles: Tactical Changes and Bench X-Factors
Come playoff time, coaches know they have to make moves—sometimes bold ones—that can backfire just as easily as they go well. The Chicago Fire found themselves in a rut until head coach and director of football Gregg Berhalter switched the formation from a 4-3-3 to a 3-4-3. That tactical move reversed a season-long slide (they were on their way to another potential Wooden Spoon win), leading to a five-game undefeated run that included taking down Messi and Miami 5-3. That move transformed Chicago into a playoff team for the first time since 2017. The Fire lost to Philly in the opening round but wouldn’t have even sniffed the playoffs without that change.
Bold moves like that can give smart money an edge in MLS Playoff betting. Before the books have a chance to catch up, and well before the public money catches on, a team can have real value when changes are made.
At the same time, making a big lineup change under pressure can have real downsides. Especially when a team’s best players aren’t natural fits for a position that the manager is trying to shoehorn them into.
Chaos in sports gives sharps an edge, and soccer is no exception. Live betting MLS games and keeping up with a sudden lineup change can often mean beating the books and finding mispriced odds first.
Momentum in MLS – Watch for Hot Players and Cold Spells
Injuries and lineup changes can be chaotic, but they’re tangible. Focusing on the wrong star at the wrong time can ruin any bet slip or parlay.
But it’s the ultimate intangible – momentum – that can create or destroy MLS championship goals.
Look for end of season form to help decide who to go with as the MLS Playoffs move to the conference semifinals.
Lionel Messi – Inter Miami CF. Pretty much enough said. The world’s best player (come at us, Ronaldo fans) isn’t slowing down in Miami. 10 goals and 8 assists in his last 8 regular season games led to playoff dominance in the opening round. And there’s no reason it won’t continue, if he stays healthy.
Anders Dreyer – San Diego FC. The phenom was just named the 2025 MLS Newcomer of the Year. His five goals in San Diego’s final four regular season games led the best team in the Western Conference into the playoffs. They’re an expansion team on an incredible run, and momentum can take them far.
Denis Bouanga – LAFC. Bouanga and Son Heung-min might just be the most dangerous combo in the league besides Messi and Suarez. The Gabon national Bouanga had 9 goals in the last 6 games of the regular season, including two games with a hat trick. He’s also the only active player in Major League Soccer with 10+ goals in the playoffs. That kind of explosive power and clutch play can break any MLS playoff game open. With the two players filling the net, the Over in O/U totals might be a tempting play. On the colder side,injuries aren’t the only red flag when you might consider fading top MLS players.Try Messi’s hot-headed teammate, Luis Suarez.
Suarez has bitten – yes, bitten – at least 3 players in his career, the last one most famously in the 2014 World Cup. No, he hasn’t matured with age. He just missed the deciding Game 3 for Miami against Nashville for kicking a player.
Another player who can fly off the handle is the Philadelphia Union’s Kai Wagner. He’s a top defender who just made it to the league’s Best XI list, but he’s been suspended before for discipline issues.
In the pressure cooker of the race to the MLS Cup, cool heads are needed. No matter how talented players can be.