“Big Six” bias. Name-brand inflation. The Premier League’s betting history shows underdogs cover more than the public thinks.
The world’s most bet-on soccer league is the English Premier League.
Which also makes it the world’s most hype-filled league when it comes to soccer betting.
Contrarian bets are the play for real soccer bettors. It’s easy to wager on a big brand name every weekend – the media almost wills it into existence.
But it’s the smaller clubs taking down the giants of global soccer that deliver the most potential upside.
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Big Six Cover Less Often Against the Spread
Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham Hotspur.
Iconic names that went from local English community teams to global brands in recent decades.
All that attention and glory comes with a price tag though: inflated lines.
Your average bettor who’s never come close to the UK but rocks a Man U jersey on the weekends is drawn to these lines like a hooligan to a pint.
Brand power in every sport carries a lot of weight in terms of getting money out of fans’ pockets, whether it’s the Yankees, Cowboys, or the Gunners.
For the average bettor, that means paying a premium on inflated lines just because of the legendary team he’s pulling for.
The same story applies across all sports when it comes to brand names: public money piles in, odds move to compensate and help the books cash in, and the true lines disappear.
But it’s not just moneyline shading to consider when it comes to the Big Six.
Betting them to cover the spread in Asian Handicap markets produced sub-50% wins between 2018 and 2023.
Asian handicap lines are more nuanced and offer more chance to get into the analytics, while also removing draws from the equation.
Suddenly Burnley bettors have a shot against a Liverpool or Spurs lineup that has 20x the team payroll.
Underdogs in Top-6 Fixtures Cover More
Especially when playing at home, the Davids in EPL cover the Asian handicap against the Goliaths more than half the time.
With all the media attention and the big stars on every roster, it makes sense that the Big Six teams are regularly overestimated by the casual betting public.
Lucky Rebel bettors are more seasoned and know where to look outside of the spotlight. Real value in soccer bets means finding those edges.
Smaller clubs get shafted by the public betting simply because of their smaller footprint in social media, on TV, everywhere.
Sure, some North American Hollywood types can buy a small English club. Maybe they’ll turn them around, get promoted, sell plenty of merch.
But 99% of the small market clubs in EPL don’t get the attention they deserve from the betting public.
Their fans don’t care though. And neither do the sharps who make bank from them every season.
Home underdogs in EPL, over the past 5 years, have covered between 53%-56% of the time. This beats even standard underdog rates, which cover just under 50% of games.
Why does a small club do better?
Look at some intangibles that can’t always be measured on the scoresheet or a side-by-side roster comparison:
- Local passion: Smaller grounds like Brentford’s Gtech Community Stadium or Luton Town’s Kenilworth Road create serious intensity and pressure. The hostile environment can rattle even the biggest stars on the visiting Big Six side.
- Pitch and conditions: Many smaller clubs have unique pitch surfaces and sizes. These can slow games down and negate technical advantages. Plus, the home side knows where the bumps are.
- Getting up for it: Facing a Big Six visitor is the match of the season for many underdogs. They game plan carefully and raise their game from the opening whistle. With less obvious talent, they also get more physical and defensive, which slows down the Big Six attack and reduces scoring. It’s easier to beat the spread when the other side has 1 goal instead of 4.
On top of this, and more tangibly, is the fact that the Big Six often rotate squads, playing less talented bench players more against smaller opponents.
They also deal with “fixture congestion”.
With great power comes great responsibility. And great travel miles. Some Voltaire for you there.
The great powers of the Big Six play not only in their domestic league (EPL), but also in national cup tournaments, continental tournaments (like UEFA Champions League), and international matches.
All that means they might not perform as consistently in tough away environments, and that also makes underdog covers more likely.
Sharps can look at that 53-56% figure and crunch the numbers to see which lower-table sides are best positioned to cover every weekend.
Betting on Form Over Brand Pays
Smart money soccer bets focus on form instead of the shiny names.
Every season in the EPL, the middle class of clubs – say from 4th-10th in the standings – can and will surprise the bigs with regularity.
They routinely hit above 50% to cash handicap bets against Big Six clubs.
You know these second-tier names, clubs like Brighton, Newcastle, even Aston Villa, although they’re close enough to a top-tier club most seasons.
It’s tough for casual players to ignore the Big Six bias, but Lucky Rebel bettors know how to spot which one of these smaller outfits is in position to win on any given weekend.
What do they look for? Form. Momentum. Mojo.
Whatever you call it, look for smaller clubs on top 10 form streaks to find your edge over the books.
This could mean multiple-game unbeaten runs, a high positive goal difference, or a top 10 Expected Goal number (xG).
That last one is for the fans of deeper numbers and analytics.
If the club’s xG is much higher than their actual goals scored, it means they’re generating quality chances but just unlucky or on a bad run. They could be primed for a breakout game.
Approaching form with some analysis while also shooting for smaller clubs to take down a Big Six unit will put Lucky Rebel bettors ahead of the weekend warriors chasing names instead of quality.