The first leg features some big openers and potential upsets.
With the NFL Playoffs over with for the season, it’s time for the “other” football playoffs and a Champions League knockout phase preview.
Sixteen European soccer teams are in the knockout phase playoffs and the goal is to hit the end of May as one of two teams left standing. Champions League 2025-26 is looking like one of the most level competitions in years. There’s no outright dominance from old dynasties like Real Madrid or Barcelona this year, and even the top teams have some tough matches in the first leg.
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David vs. Goliath: Champions League Playoffs Offer Big Mismatches
The first leg of the Champions League 2025-26 knockout phase playoffs kick off early next week.
The big guns – Arsenal, Bayern, Barcelona, Man City and four others – are already in. Teams 9 through 24 have to battle it out. It’s a mismatch on paper for some matchups, where teams like Inter, Real Madrid, and PSG are in the same battle as no-names like Bodø/Glimt, Qarabağ, and Club Brugge. Exactly where sharps like to find an edge. They know how the Champions League knockout stage works when it comes to the playoffs, with giant gaps in terms of talent and payroll.
Knowing the new Champions League format is key, and it helps explain why giants like Real Madrid and Inter aren’t 100% chalk for the Round of 16.
Champions League 2026 bracket predictions will fall into two camps: the casual public, starved for Champions League games, will flood the brand name teams. The smart money will pause, look for inflated lines after that money has come in and moved the Champions League odds artificially higher or lower than they should be. They’ll identify dark horses to reach the Champions League round of 16 2026 and find an edge from underdogs or favorites that have been hitting their stride recently.
Paris St-Germain
PSG fits into the latter category. This means teams that are surprised to find themselves having to play their way into the Round of 16 but are rounding into form just in time. They’re coming off a 5-0 crushing of Olympique Marseille, and a streak where they’ve lost just once in their last six games.
They went 4-2-2 in the league phase, solid but not inspiring numbers that should match their payroll. But PSG could be hoisting the trophy at the end of May as much as any other team. Kvaratskhelia and Dembélé alone can handle most teams up front. Look for the brand to match their favored status in their knockout phase playoff game against Monaco.
Inter Milan
Finishing 10th in the run-up to the knockout phase playoffs, Inter is another strong Champions League contender that finds itself playing for their lives earlier than expected.
Inter put up a 5‑0‑3 record in the league phase with a goal differential of +8 goal. In Series A they’re pushing for the title with the league’s best attack. Fifty-seven goals in 24 matches gives Champions League Over bettors a solid target for every Champions League match that Inter plays. Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram are also good candidates for the Champions League Golden Boot, but the team will have to make it past a frosty Bodø/Glimt side next week first. More on that in a minute.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid finished the league phase 5‑0‑3 with +9 goal difference. Domestically, they’re 18‑3‑2 in La Liga – a record that should put them in contention to go deep into May when it comes to Champions League. They travel to Benfica next week in what should be a lopsided W. Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo are a brutal attack for any team. Benfica has struggled in the league phase, going 3-1-4. We can see some upsets in other parts of the Champions League bracket, but not here. Expect Los Blancos to play with a vengeance for having missed the early bye into the top 16.
Dark Horses = Betting Edges
Bodø/Glimt is possibly the least known Champions League contender of all time. Dark horses don’t get much darker than Europe’s northernmost team, and they even get to host the first leg of their knockout phase playoff game. Inside the Arctic Circle, no less. That means a game time temperature in the low‑30s°F. The visitors, from Inter, are coming from mid-50s temps and many of them will likely never have experienced such cold temperatures. Plus, they’re not used to playing on artificial turf. First touches can skid past, and footing could be an issue. That all levels the playing field considerably. Bodø/Glimt needs non-soccer edges like that, considering their payroll is 15X smaller than Inter’s.
Factor in the idea that no team arrives at this stage of Champions League without a high level of talent, and Bodø/Glimt has a great shot. One lucky bounce or a keeper’s frozen fingers could make all the difference. That +345 moneyline on the Norwegian club looks pretty inviting for the first leg battle.
Club Brugge finished the league phase in the middle of the table, with a solid positive goal difference and a 3-1-4 record. They played multiple games with 2 or more goals, including a strong closing run to get into the Champions League knockout phase playoff with a 3-0 win over Marseille.
Atletico Madrid will be the visitor to Bruges for the first leg, and similar to Bodø/Glimt’s weather edge, Club Brugge knows the Spaniards will have to adjust fast from dry, sunny Spain to the cold, damp lowlands weather. They’re a shaky road team, with two away losses in similar weather conditions in England during the league phase. On paper, they should close out Brugge on the second leg, but there could be solid value on betting the first leg for the underdogs to draw or even win outright, making the later visit to Atleti much more tense for the hosts.
The oddsmakers share that cautious outlook, giving Atletico Madrid just -106 to Brugge’s +265 on the moneyline for the opener next week.