The actual AO winners are often chalk but underdogs are always lurking
The unknowns of the early season at the Australian Open make for a tennis betting environment that is more wide-open than any other Slam event. But it’s not just a matter of picking random underdogs and cashing. We’re serving up the best ways to play the longer odds.
AO Underdog Stories Reveal Betting Edges
The Australian Open is the first serious tennis tournament of the tennis season. And as a whole, it levels the playing field for underdogs. Which can make for a rough time for casual tennis betting fans but a great one for sharps.
Entering a Grand Slam event so quickly into the new tennis season each year can be like dropping into a cold plunge to start the day. It’s a shock to the system. Players and betting markets are all guessing at how offseason changes like new coaches, the level of fitness work (super important in the hot AO conditions), and any tweaks to a player’s game are going to translate against elite opposition over three or five sets.
Those unknowns create space for surprise. And chaos, which is where the smart money often finds an edge.
Cyprus’ Marcos Baghdatis rolled into the 2006 Australian Open as a promising 20‑year‑old sitting just outside the top 50. He was not a guy anyone had in their AO Finals futures. But a hard‑court Slam event in 100-degree heat can tip the odds fast for a big hitter with fitness. Looking back, bettors might have spotted subtle edges beyond the strokes on the court. Baghdatis grew up playing in some of the only conditions on the planet that could mimic what Melbourne is like in peak summer. The courts of Greece and Cyprus are just as scorching, and that served him well against players from more moderate climates.
From the 4th round to the quarterfinals and the semifinals, Baghdatis took down three top‑10 players. That included coming from two sets down in the semifinal, a 5-setter that only the fittest players can survive. He went down to Roger Federer in the AO Finals to end the run, but losing to the world’s best player of all time doesn’t take away from Baghdatis’ epic underdog trip.
Tennis bets would have been slow to catch up. The betting public gravitates to the top seeds of course. Because it was January, where so much about the players is unknown, the market was still trading on the 20-year-old as a promising young star instead of being priced as a top 10 talent. But the smart money would have spotted him as early as that 4th round win over world #3 Andy Roddick and scored some great odds for the quarters and semis.
Rafael Nadal’s 2022 title is a different example of how the Australian Open can be a great spot for underdogs. We know – Nadal is not usually in the ‘dog category. But he started that year with serious questions around his foot and his age (35). He was priced at up to +1200 before the tournament started. For the AO Final odds, he was still +160 to +170 against the favorite Daniil Medvedev, priced roughly in the +160 to +170 range at major books. The narrative coming into the tournament and the new year for Nadal was that he was injured, washed up. A 5-hour, 24-minute epic win against Medvedev proved otherwise. Nadal made the most of the conditions at the AO and the bettors who were tracking his path to the final would have been rewarded along the way, skipping the storylines in favor of what their eyes were seeing.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
How to Profit from the Underdogs at the Australian Open
Don’t just bet the ‘dogs blindly at the Open, thinking that everyone is starting more or less from a blank slate since it’s so early in the tennis season and it’s a toss-up when it comes to the end of the two weeks. The data doesn’t support the idea that underdogs win more often in the AO Finals than anywhere else.
But there are underdog-specific plays to make that the casual bettors might miss.
The first thing to look for is path. An AO finals underdog who arrives at the Melbourne finale with three or four wins over top‑15 or top‑10 seeds on their way to the big match is not a typical underdog. They are an impostor, a wolf in Nike clothing.
Look for that pattern emerging and grab them early, with longer odds that can cash. Multiple ranked scalps on the road to hoisting the trophy at Rod Laver Arena is exactly how several classic AO underdog winners (Baghdatis in 2006, Tsonga in 2008, Nadal in 2022) got it done. This is the opposite of ‘dogs at other Slams who often lean more on draw luck to reach the last match. Some players will cruise at Wimbledon, the French Open and the US Open barely facing any seeds, benefitting from an early knock-out of a top seed by another player. Melbourne makes you earn it.
Second, respect the gap. The current level of the players is a bigger question mark at the Australian Open than at any other tournament. Because the AO is so early in the season, the books are still calibrating who has added a gear over the off‑season and who’s quietly lost a step, all while factoring in the world tennis rankings that each player is carrying into the new season.
That lag makes Melbourne a great spot for value. When an underdog arrives in the final after surviving extreme heat, multiple five‑setters, and two-set deficits, the public money and the sportsbooks might still price in only part of the narrative, not the reality of a player. It takes time for most of us to update our software to new info.
Third, lean toward underdog derivatives rather than outright miracles. History still shows us that top‑seeded or higher‑ranked players are the frequent winners in AO finals. Especially in the Djokovic‑Nadal-Federer era and the new Alcaraz‑Sinner one. But the ‘dogs that make it to that last stage do win sets more than expected. They also push game totals and stretch the favorite deeper into four-set and five‑set matches than the betting public expects.
On the women’s side, there’s more parity. Sabalenka is dominant, with Gauff, Anisimova, Swiatek and Pegula all capable. But the underdogs emerge more often than in the men’s draw. This is where current form matters even more. You might catch a fast-riser on her way to the AO finals late in the first week even, long before the odds have been adjusted.