It’s late in the season. Legs are heavy. Past outcomes show unexpected runs and erratic lines; especially in week two.
Late-Season Fatigue Fuels Upsets
Lucky Rebel players know that the edge in tennis often comes through upsets.
At this stage of the tennis season, those upsets are increasingly likely.
The US Open tennis tournament comes in September, after 8+ months of tennis that started in Australia. Players can be wiped out, are nagging more than ever at this point.
The numbers back it up: Since 2010, half of the US Opens have seen five or more Top 10 seeds getting knocked out before the quarterfinals. That’s a rate higher than at Wimbledon, the French Open, and the Australian Open.
That trend leaves plenty of room to cash some smart upset plays at the US Open.
Some contributing factors to dragging it in the later stage of the tennis season:
It’s the final Slam. Just pure fatigue here. This means players with lesser skill but elite fitness and good health might be primed to take down a higher-seeded player who’s feeling burnt out, physically or mentally.
Hardcourt hurts. A number of players will have been hitting the hardcourt circuit hard since Wimbledon. That’s Cincinnati, Montreal, Winston-Salem, maybe a couple of different ones.
Players aren’t getting the natural shock absorption of grass or the relative softness of clay. If the higher seeds have been playing long matches deep into those tournaments, feet, knees, ankles, lower back, and hips could be hurting.
Smart money always looks to understand the why behind certain trends.
When you know that, you can make smarter bets.
Follow the injury reports from recent tournaments. Check which top-seeded players retired early in the tournament, withdrawing because of some ailment.
And even if they appear healthy, some top players are victims of their own success. Going to the finals in 2-3 showings before Flushing Meadows leaves little time for recovery.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Home-Crowd Pressure Cuts Both Ways
We’ve been taught forever that home-court or home-field advantage is big deal. That the crowd will elevate the athletes and will them to victory.
And then we get to the US Open. Needle scratch.
High expectations have led to plenty of early exits, especially for young rising US stars. Sloan Stephens never came close again after her 2017 win, losing in the first round in multiple years after that. Frances Tiafoe, early start 2021, huge crowd, second round exit. Same for Tommy Paul, John Isner, and others.
What’s going on?
First, the press and media attention leading up to the event and between rounds can hype up American players too much. Everyone wants a home country winner on its own turf. But suddenly they’re carrying the heavy weight of expectation. Which leads to underperforming.
Flushing Meadows delivers the energized crowds, guaranteed, every year. Although they get loud for every match, they reserve an extra level when it’s an American player hitting the court.
But that can lead to squeezing the racquet into splinters (yeah, they’re not using wood racquets since the 80’s, you get the idea though). Or overhitting it by two feet every time. Or double-faulting way above their average.
That home crowd pressure does produce diamonds too, of course. Watch Jimmy Connors in the ‘90s. You get the real sense that there’s no way he wins that match without the crowd elevating him to some other level.
He entered as a wild card, a token gesture to an iconic American player. But he went ham.
And the crowd went with him, all the way to the semifinals, hitting shots that he wouldn’t get to without the energy in that stadium. Check the tapes.
Other American players regularly cite the crowd support in their post-win interviews on the court as a motivating edge.
Where does that leave bettors for the US Open?
Smart money will do what it always does: roll up the sleeves and look at the stats and obscure metrics to see which players are likely to rise and which ones will fall.
Week 2 Is a Different Tournament
Week 2 of the US Open means a dramatic shift. One minute, a player is fighting for survival in Week 1, scrapping mostly in obscurity for every point.
The next minute? It’s Week 2, everyone knows you, and you’re chasing history.
The metrics and momentum get almost a full reset too.
Since 2010, in 10 of the 15 US Open editions that were played, at least one player either unseeded or lower than 20th has reached the semis. Leylah Fernandez did it as an unseeded up-and-comer in 2021, and players like Emma Raducanu and Cameron Norrie are just a few others.
They were all riding momentum and then the US Open energy seemed to propel them further in Week 2.
Lucky Rebel players can count on at least one similar run and cash some upset odds.
Momentum can swing after round 4 for players who gutted out some long 5-setters in the first week. They suddenly catch fire in the later rounds, having figured out the pace and rhythm of the New York City crowds. Same for players peaking late in their career, they let the unique Open energy take them for a ride.
Can you bet on momentum? With a game like tennis at the highest level, virtually all the players have similar skills. It’s the mental game that differentiates them from point to point and match to match. Momentum can give the exact boost that makes a difference.
It also helps that by Week 2, some of the favorites have inevitably fallen. The field becomes more open, more beatable.
Smart money looks at live form and momentum to make bets from the 4th round onwards, not pre-tournament seeding anymore.
Tired top seeds are meant to be faded. Now it’s energy, confidence, and NYC vibes.