The Fall Classic will produce a first-time winner and while the Brewers have the edge the Rays can do some damage
The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays meet in a World Series that guarantees fans a first-time champion. While MLB Finals odds board might see more action with a Yankees-Dodgers-type of Fall Classic, this one should deliver some great games with hungry fan bases.
The early World Series betting guide goes like this: Milwaukee deserves to be favored, but their tight price doesn’t leave much upside, especially against a Rays team that can win some games with their pitching. The Brewers are -172 to win the series currently, with the Rays at +148.
The pitching battles will be front and center and could save the Rays, while the Brewers will bring a complete package to be able to win any type of game.
Milwaukee Has Earned Favorite Status
The Brewers won a franchise-record 103 regular-season games this season. They handled San Diego (with a little help from the stadium designer) in the NLDS and then swept the defending champion Dodgers in the NLCS.
There’s no question who should be favored in the World Series.
The Brewers’ biggest edge is in how many ways they can win. Their lineup has produced against strong postseason pitching. They made the Dodgers’ billion-dollar rotation look average. Their defense limits damage. Their bullpen depth gives them options when a starter exits early. They have an ace in Misiorowski, good for at least two starts. They can win a pitcher’s duel or a slugfest. Against Los Angeles, Milwaukee won the opener 2-1 and then scored at 6+ runs in each of the next three games.
William Contreras rolls into the World Series hitting .367 through eight postseason games. Jake Bauers earned NLCS MVP honors after driving in six runs against the Dodgers. That epic 11-pitch at-bat that ended with him going yard against Blake Snell symbolizes the Brewers’ baseball brains and calm under pressure.
In short, there are virtually no holes. Once you get deeper into the series, the starting pitching does thin out a little. Maybe that’s your edge.
Tampa Bay is a Live Underdog
Tampa Bay won 98 games this year before sweeping the Yankees and beating Cleveland in six. That’s only 5 games fewer than the Brew Crew’s total.
Where MLB betting fans might see a live ‘dog is in their current form. The Rays closed the ALCS with three straight wins. They held the Guardians to seven runs across those final three games. Pitchers heating up at this time of the year is exactly what makes World Series winners.
The Rays’ offense starts with Yandy Díaz’s consistency and power from Junior Caminero. Díaz had 180 regular-season hits and Caminero launched 42 homers. It’s a 1-2 punch that gives Tampa different ways to put pressure on Milwaukee. Díaz can keep an inning moving, and Caminero can change the score with one swing. For bettors, that matters when weighing whether the Brewers are worth a steep moneyline price.
Díaz went for .333 with four doubles and two homers in the ALCS. He’s staying hot.
The cracks in Tampa’s game are easier to spot though.
One concern is with the power production. Caminero’s first home run of the postseason only came in Game 6 against Cleveland. Could be the start of him heating up, but that’s a lot of hope in one swing.
As a team, they’ve had 8 homers in 9 playoff games this season. Not terrible, but at .78 per game compared to Milwaukee’s 1.25/game for the playoffs, that could cost them a game or two. For Rays bettors though, there’s a chance they regain their regular season form, where they actually out-homered the Brewers 169-154.
The Rays’ top-heavy lineup also has trouble with the heat. Tampa Bay had the second-lowest OPS in MLB against fastballs above 98 mph this season. That’s an issue against Misiorowski and the Brewers’ harder-throwing relievers.
Another crack is the road game mismatch. Both teams went 55-26 at home during the regular season, so Tampa Bay can be just as difficult to beat at the Trop. The separation came on the road, where TB won 12 fewer games than they did at home.
Tampa Bay’s path to an upset? It can be the same script you use for picking your bets.
They have starting pitching that can take pressure off its hitters. Freddy Peralta worked 5⅓ innings in the clincher and landed the ALCS MVP trophy, and Game 1 starter Drew Rasmussen went 11-0 with a 1.73 ERA in 15 starts after the All-Star break. That’s 4 starts minimum in a 7-game series where Tampa can hang with the Brewers.
If their starters keep the score close, Díaz’s steady contact and Caminero’s power (if it stays consistent) could see them stealing a game or two. Remember, no one expected a Brewers sweep over the big bad Dodgers starters either.
World Series Game 1 Betting Preview
Jacob Misiorowski is Milwaukee’s Game 1 starter, with Drew Rasmussen the likely choice for Tampa Bay. The Rays are still saying TBD for their ace, but it would shock most people if Rasmussen wasn’t the guy.
Misiorowski’s regular-season numbers put him as the overwhelming favorite for the NL Cy Youn award: a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP. Those are all MLB-leading numbers. It happens almost every season though – a rougher patch for aces arrives during the MLB playoffs. San Diego and Los Angeles both pushed up his pitch count, and he hasn’t completed five innings in either playoff start.
The Miz will have 11 full days between appearances when he takes the mound on Friday, but rest alone doesn’t guarantee a return to his regular season dominance. Remember that when looking the World Series Game 1 odds.
Rasmussen went 11-0 with a 1.73 ERA in 15 starts after the All-Star break and the Rays won 14 of those outings. He can start Friday on normal rest, which for some MLB bettors is a better, more bankable rhythm than having almost 2 weeks off.
The Brewers also have a bullpen that posted a 1.33 ERA across 40⅔ postseason innings. Use that info how you want for Game 1. It could mean they don’t even need peak Miz.
Milwaukee’s full-game moneyline, Tampa Bay’s team-total Under, and the full-game Under are all decent bets with that stat. You might be tempted by the Miz’s shaky playoffs so far and the underdog storyline of the Rays, but the Brewers’ bullpen plus the home-field edge should keep them in the game.