The NBA season is almost here and the betting angles offer opportunities before the new data is available
The NBA returns October 20 with just three games on opening night – but all three are heavyweight matchups.
Celtics at Pistons, 76ers at Knicks, and Thunder at Spurs. That includes New York beginning its championship title defense against LeBron on his new team, and SGA vs. Wemby.
For bettors looking at the NBA opening night odds, this is a good time of year to grab some mispriced lines. Remember, the books have zero current data to work from – only last season’s.
It’s also a solid time for catching higher plus-money odds on NBA championship futures and NBA MVP betting. It’s not quite a jump ball involving every team and dozens of players, but the uncertainty even among the likely winners is at its highest right now.
Storylines are everywhere after an epic offseason of player movement too. Giannis, LeBron, Jaylen Brown, Kawhi. NBA betting fans can’t wait.
Opening Night NBA Bets
Philadelphia vs. New York
It makes sense that Jalen Brunson and his New York squad open as a 5.5-point favorite in the Knicks-76ers battle at MSG.
First, the vibes will be immaculate. The Knicks will be raising the banner. The energy from that alone could be enough to cover. Add in the intensity of LeBron and his new Sixers team and it’s a game where players will either get hyper-focused like it’s a playoff matchup or they’ll be too amped up and spray shots and turnovers everywhere for the first quarter.
It’s hard to not give Philly a series look at +5.5. The Embiid-James-Brown combination is a monster, even if LeBron is 41 and we have no idea how they’ll all share the basketball. Tyrese Maxey adds another problem, and that’s a handful for any team, even the defending champs.
Where the Knicks might grab an edge is with OG Anunoby, the hero along with Brunson last June. If he’s not too bagged guarding James all night, he can make things happen late and put some daylight between the teams. Otherwise, you need to pick your angle: Philly’s got the edge in raw talent, while New York has the team cohesion that can only come from a long title run. We think it’ll take Philly a few games to have everyone settle into their roles, and the difference of a couple of threes is enough for the Knicks to cover.
Boston vs. Detroit
The vibes for the Celtics will be less than immaculate in the Boston-Detroit opener.
They lost Jaylen Brown in the offseason. They brought in Paul George, but the 2026 version of Paul George. Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis also left Beantown. George’s arrival could open up a system that sees Jayson Tatum get a lot more looks and buckets, but otherwise Mitchell Robinson is not an impact guy to replace the departed players. Payton Pritchard just snagged a $44M two-year deal, so you can imagine he’ll see more minutes and should improve on his 17 ppg and 5 assists per game.
On the Detroit side, things aren’t much clearer. Sure they won 60+ last season and finished first in the East, but that second round exit against the Cavs exposed them.
Jalen Duren, fresh off a monster contract extension, and Cade Cunningham, with his steady rise to elite status, will win some games for the Pistons as the core. But they also shifted a lot of players out and brough new ones in. No one knows how quickly this team will come together.
Those are a lot of question marks. One of the keys to betting the NBA early is to be selective in your bets, even if the excitement level of having hoops back in your life is high. You just don’t want to spray bets everywhere though. That includes this game – too many unknowns on both sides. Give it a few weeks to play out.
If the preseason matters in your NBA betting strategy for the early part of the season, and you just have to have some action on it, Boston did just torch Philly 144-106 in early October.
San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City
The Spurs are the early 2.5-point favorite against Oklahoma City. Not more than a coin toss really, but still surprising for lots of NBA fans. OKC has been the dominant pick for NBA Futures for the past 3-4 seasons, even though they fell short last year against San Antonio in the conference finals.
It’s the rise of Wemby, of course, that’s putting the Spurs on the same level as the Thunder. With that deep Finals run last season, he’s going to be even stronger to start the year. Based on their limited moves in the offseason, mainly adding Tobias Harris, they feel they’ve got the team in place to make another run.
NBA Championship Futures: Oklahoma City and San Antonio at the Top
Both the Thunder (+260) and the Spurs (+265) top the board for NBA Championship Futures.
Our lean is OKC. They are going to want to take back what they feel is theirs. San Antonio is too reliant on Wembanyama, and any missed time for him will hurt their chances. OKC is more well-rounded, they’ll take their lessons from the loss in last year’s playoffs and cook. Losing Lu Dort is the only true negative, and while it could matter come playoff time, we think the rest of the squad will compensate.
For a longer-priced alternative, New York is listed at +950. That’s a solid payday for defending champions and they have beaten longer odds before. Put us in the one-and-done camp though. A lot had to go right for them to make it to the top of the league last season, and everyone’s gunning for #1. They won’t surprise anyone.
And if you’re looking for a true longshot, look at the Miami Heat (+2500). They could make it out of the East logjam after they’ve all beat each other down, and Giannis could go ham this season with his new team, trying to secure his legacy with a title. The Freak and Bam Adebayo might not let anyone score within 10 feet of the basket all season.
MVP Picks: Wembanyama is the Favorite
The NBA MVP winner tops the NBA Awards futures, and oddsmakers clearly like the Wemby story above everyone. SGA, Luka, and Jokić round out the top tier.
Of those players, Wemby is the boring but go-to pick. SGA’s flopping has gone too viral to make him a popular pick, Luka is an injury risk, and Jokić has simply won it too often already.
It would take a major surprise to unseat any of those players. Don’t count out Giannis though. That Miami sun after years in the Milwaukee winters might just elevate him to a new level.