Dallas-Green Bay and a handful of high-scoring games on tap
Best Bets
Dallas at Green Bay
This Sunday Night Football matchup could be one of the highest-scoring games of the season.
Green Bay might have unlocked something in Week 5 against the Bears, after struggling to a weak 2-2 in their first four games. Jordan Love was hitting everything, racking up 367 yards and two TDs. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden each bagged over 120 yards in receiving too.
They couldn’t get anything going on the ground, but Dallas is the perfect opponent for a pass-heavy side. The Cowboys rank dead last in a number of pass defense statistical categories, and anywhere from 21st to 31st in others.
Bottom line, props-wise for the Cowboys-Packers game? Hit the Overs on any number of QB or WR props, especially with Golden and Tucker Kraft. Watson will draw the books’ attention and might be priced high, but the others might feast.
On the Dallas side, expect similar aerial fireworks. CeeDee Lamb might be due for a bounce-back game after just 9 yards receiving last weekend vs. the Bucs. Keep in mind – that was one week after Lamb went ham for 17 catches and 189 yards the week before against the Texans. We’re not entirely sure – and neither is Dallas – as to what happened against Tampa, but racking up a ton of yardage and 34 points total against Houston should be close to repeatable against the Packers.
If Green Bay has suddenly found its groove at the same time Dallas lost theirs, this one could be an easy -1.5 cover for the Pack. Either way, we like the Over even at a high price of 53.
Arizona at LA Rams
Ok, hear us out. The Cardinals aren’t great, sure. The Rams are close to elite, with Matthew Stafford still dealing, Puka Nacua still uncoverable, and Aaron Donald still unbelievable.
All that still might not matter for a -12.5 spread in favor of the Rams in the LA-Arizona game.
Divisional games are almost always tighter than you expect. That’s point one for the Cards. The NFC West is a grind, with Seattle, LA and the 49ers to contend with. Arizona came close to beating San Francisco earlier on the season, going down 36-30. They put up 17 points in the 4th quarter alone in that game and showed they have some dog in them.
Next, factor in LA’s emotional – and shorter – week. Their Monday Night Football loss in OT to the Bills in a possible Super Bowl preview was draining for players (and NFL bettors). Often after a hard loss, teams will have trouble mustering up the grind to go hard again six days later. Especially against an opponent that should be a cakewalk.
Upset Picks
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
A home ‘dog is always tempting.
The Steelers-Buccaneers game this Sunday is no exception. Pittsburgh is laying 2.5 points and Tampa is +117 on the moneyline.
First up, Baker might be back. Even though the team hasn’t had a huge drop-off since he left – to be honest, they weren’t all that great (0-4) when he was playing – it always helps to have your starting QB behind center. Jalon Daniels has looked decent as a backup though and he can get it done again if needed. He helped the team in their first W of the season just last weekend against the Cowboys.
The Bucs could be riding high from that win, and they might be looking at this stretch – Pittsburgh-Carolina-Atlanta as a way to salvage their season.
It’s Bucky Irving that makes Tampa a live underdog on the field though. Irving’s close to being fully back to his 2024 form, and he racked up 165 yards last weekend in that win over the Cowboys.
You can also add in the Steelers’ road offense, averaging a sad 13.5 ppg. Tampa can score two measly TDs and beat that spread.
Denver at Seattle
This one features a road underdog that has a shot.
Seattle is coming off a punishing loss, 32-29, to San Francisco. Sam Darnold is still pick-prone too – he had two in that Niners game and already has five this season. Pair that with the Broncos’ 9th-best passing defense and their D alone could keep this one closer than the
3.5-point spread in favor of Seattle.
Keep in mind too that Seattle’s near-win over San Francisco was mostly defense-driven. The Seahawks’ D forced 3 turnovers, while the Seattle offense committed four of their own. It’s not tough to imagine a low-scoring game with Denver beating the spread or even winning outright.
The Seattle-Denver game goes Thursday night.
Parlays
Rams-Cardinals
We’ll go back to this one for the start of a tidy parlay.
With the Rams high-octane offense featuring all of the above plus Davante Adams and Kyren Williams, taking the Over feels like a safe play. Arizona’s secondary is mid-tier at best. Pair that with a higher plus-money leg, the Cardinals covering the 12.5-point spread.
Then add an anchor leg, say the Bills moneyline against the Raiders. Vegas is hobbling, with Ashton Jeanty not looking near 100%. Buffalo is coming off a confidence-builder in LA, they get to stay for another week to get fully adjusted to West Coast time, and Josh Allen picks apart the Raiders’ below-average D, which is sitting 27th in the NFL currently.