Lamar’s return against Josh Allen highlights the midway point of the NFL season
Your NFL Week 8 odds for the midway point of the season have enough data to back up the favorites everywhere.
NFL odds don’t follow the rules though. Some upsets are always around the corner and spreads were made to be beaten. We’ve identified a few of them plus the best out of a wide range of NFL parlays to complete your bet slip.
Best Bets
Baltimore at Buffalo
Lamar Jackson in his return game against Josh Allen makes this the obvious marquee game for NFL Week 8 betting fans. Small asterisk – Jackson is expected to play his first game back after a Week 4 high ankle sprain. He’s not guaranteed as yet.
Baltimore with a healthy Jackson is a problem for a Bills’ D that hasn’t come close to matching their offense. Jackson brings multiple possibilities on the same snap and Buffalo has not shown it can hang with most teams this year when it comes to points scored. They’ve allowed 29+ in five out of their six games so far. And even though they’re 5-1, those five W’s have come by a combined 29 points.
Then you’ve got Zay Flowers’ breakout season to deal with. Even without Lamar, Flowers is 5th in the NFL in receiving yards and has gone for 100+ in 50% of the Ravens’ games.
Allen always makes the Bills a compelling bet as he’s shown his ability to take games over, but overall the team has so many holes on the defensive side of the ball that it’s a shaky argument for Buffalo laying more than a field goal. If Jackson plays, as is expected, the Ravens at +3 look like the play, and you could even talk yourself into them winning outright at +150.
Minnesota at Detroit
Another home team sitting at –3.5 in NFL Week 8 odds, the Lions are a shell of the team that was firing on all cylinders just a few seasons ago.
The unbeaten Vikings – who have benefitted from have thing third-easiest schedule through seven week – are doing it through defense, along with some smoke and mirrors. Detroit is a better test, with Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown to defend against, but the Vikes defence leads the league in blitz rate and is tied for the league lead in sacks. They’re also #1 in the NFL in points allowed, giving just 12.3 per game so far.
That could make for a long day for Jared Goff. While he has completed 72.7% of his throws against the blitz this season, which could neutralize the pressure, it’s tough to keep it up for all four quarters against Brian Flores’ elite play-calling on D.
Minnesota also swept Detroit last season and held the Lions to 34 combined points. That gives Flores more than enough ammo to scheme against and create more of the same problems against largely the same personnel as last year.
We like the Under at 46.5 as these divisional games often play it tight. Plus, you’ve got the Vikings offense that hasn’t exactly lighting it up. They’ve put up more than 23 points just once this season, in Week 1, against a soft sked. It’s not hard to imagine a Vikings +3 scenario with a score of 17-13 or slightly higher.
Upset Picks
Dallas at Arizona
Yeah, we’re confused by the Cowboys too this season.
Sure, they just won a decisive 38-21 game on Monday Night Football over the Eagles, but that was against Tanner McKee and a franchise circling the drain. They’re also right on the edge of being both buyers and sellers at the NFL trade deadline coming up.
A short week and a trip to the West already put the Cowboys at a slight disadvantage.
Dallas does have the more dangerous offense, but the issues are on the other side of the ball. The Cowboys have allowed opponents to convert 53% of third downs and 70% of red-zone possessions into touchdowns. It’s not that we’re calling for an Arizona outright win, but beating the +6.5-point spread seems doable with that kind of defense. The Cards just need to keep it close and a late-game TD against those stats seems more than doable.
That’s due to Trey McBride, who keeps producing and is also a solid bet for a touchdown scorer prop. Dallas doesn’t really have anyone who can cover him. Arizona’s running game has struggled, but Bam Knight can get it done. He’s rushed for 128 yards on 22 carries over the past two games. Jeremiyah Love’s availability could also be a big spark, and if he’s cleared to play, you might even like the Cards at home with a +265 moneyline play.
Parlays
Chiefs Moneyline vs. Denver
After getting spanked in prime time last weekend against Seattle, expect a bounce-back game from Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker and the Chiefs. The Broncos have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game and Walker will want to set things right after a season-low performance last week.
Throw in Trey McBride at even odds currently to score a TD. Like we mentioned, the Cowboys don’t really have anyone who can hang with him.
Finally, your third leg might like the Titans to beat the spread of 10 points against the Bengals. Running back Tony Pollard came to life last weekend and Cincy is just 19th in the league in rushing yardage. We’re not going nuts and expecting a Tennessee win here, but double digits is a lot to cover and a late-game TD run could close the gap.