Links golf is unique and can reward a different style of player
Links golf is its own beast, about as far from the super-manicured North American courses as you can get.
To make the most of the Open Championship betting you need to know who can hang on a links course for four straight days. Survival, adaptation, and shot-making are big factors on the course and on your bet slip. British Open odds can fluctuate more than at most majors, and we know sharps love the volatility.
What is Different About Links Golf?
Most Open Championship venues are classic links courses. That means coastal layouts where the elements come at golfers without mercy and fast-running fairways that basically turn into greens somewhere along the way.
PGA and European Tour pros with an invite to the Open also need to deal with firm turf that can feel about as hard as your weekend cart path, plus deep pot bunkers that are the stuff of nightmares. Most Open courses have virtually no trees to shield from the wind.
These courses were built on sandy soil near the sea, which drains quickly and keeps conditions running and bouncy, even when it rains. Raw carry distance off the tee matters less on the UK courses, putting more golfers in play since even an average drive can run forever. A 280-yard carry that runs out to 330 can be better than a 305-yard carry that plugs into a wet spot or rolls into deep hay. Don’t just bet on the biggest bombers.
All of this makes the standard parkland PGA course about as different as Mars. They have tightly trimmed fairways and enough trees to soften the edges of the weather. Winning scores at The Open often hover in the single digits near par. Not your usual PGA birdie-fest.
It all gives the European players an edge at the Open, since they came up playing enough links courses to get a feel for them.
Check out the latest Golf odds at Lucky Rebel.
Player Profiles and Metrics to Win Links Golf Bets
There are a few core skills that consistently show up when you look at Open contenders over the last decade.
They bring control to the tee. Elite iron play follows, although that’s a core skill at any major. Above-average scrambling is a major asset. Recent winners like Francesco Molinari, Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa, and Brian Harman are nobody’s idea of a bomber like Bryson or Rory. All of them are strong tee-to-green players with solid accuracy and reliable short games.
A couple of key metrics are especially relevant for The Open above other majors:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
This works for every golf tournament, but on links it’s amplified. That’s because players are constantly hitting partial shots, knockdowns, and weird yardages. Avoiding those pot bunkers is a main cause. Morikawa led the field in approach when he won at Royal St. George’s in 2021. - Strokes Gained: Around the Green
The wind will cause otherwise solid shots to miss greens. Bad or just plain weird bounces happen with every group. Players who can use bump-and-runs effectively and hit low spinners will solve links courses more easily. Putting from off the green well is another huge edge. Lowry and Harman both leaned on this kind of scrambling during their Open wins. - Driving Accuracy
Those brutal pot bunkers again. Carnoustie and St. Andrews have the most fear-inducing ones. They can turn a solid drive that puts a player into birdie or even eagle range into a +2 or +3 before the sun sets on Thursday. Molinari’s precision driving at Carnoustie in 2018 is a prime example of a European player without a major’s resumé who can lift the trophy at the Open in any given year.
Players From That Side of the Pond
Many Open leaders have deep European Tour or links experience that puts them into a better position when it comes to Open odds. Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Robert MacIntyre grew up on or around links-style layouts. MacIntyre is one of those guys who will have mid-tier odds who can produce a nice payday for Open bettors. He has two top-10s in his first handful of Open starts, including a T6 debut at Royal Portrush in 2019.
For the 2026 field, the top of the market again centers on all-around tee-to-green monsters. Scottie Scheffler – non-Euro but too elite to ignore – is sitting at +850, with Rory McIlroy close behind at +900. The next three players with the shortest odds – Matt Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, and Jon Rahm – all have years of links muscle memory built up. Elite ball-strikers with enough experience in the wind.
The 2026 venue is Royal Birkdale, which is considered the most fair (or least punitive) of the Open courses. That might open the door for a less experienced links player from the American side. Wyndham Clark, Chris Gotterup, and Xander Schauffele all have fairly big plus-money numbers attached starting at +2000 in the next tier.
The Open Weather Forecast – Useful?
This is where live in-play betting can help Open betting fans score a real edge.
The same course can play eight shots differently, depending on which side of the draw catches the worst of the wind and rain. In so many editions of The Open, we’ve seen one group of golfers gain a multi-shot edge simply because they avoided the worst of storms rolling through.
When you are betting the weather to push golfers around the leaderboard, play the following factors accordingly:
- Wind: Sustained 20-30 mph winds with higher gusts are common on coastal links. Those gusts amplify misses. Players known for strong low-flight iron games get a bump here, while high-ball hitters get punished.
- Rain: A firmer, drier set of greens at The Open favors tactical, low-running golf. That’s a style of play for the more experienced links golfer. A softer, wetter environment, on the other hand, brings in more American players to the top of the Open leaderboard, who tend to be more high-ball players. That’s because the ball will hold more on approaches. If that’s the set-up, look for top putters to enter the top 10 as they start dropping birdies with makeable distances.
- Temperature: It’s not just the air temperature you should be looking at during Open betting. Wind chill will sap focus, freeze hands, and make club selection more of a crapshoot. Grab your players that are known for mental toughness and a track record of top 10s at The Open.
Closer to the opening tee shots on Thursday, check out the most current, up-to-the-minute weather and find an edge on special first-round Open bets. You might see something like the O/U on first-round birdies at a number you like for a certain player, whether the conditions are calm or severe.