Big names in the hunt along with some surprises.
The Second Round of the NHL Playoffs has already started for some teams, and other ones are heading into Game 1 very soon. Betting-wise, there haven’t been any huge surprises, but the Tampa Bay Lightning and Edmonton Oilers are on the golf course sooner than many NHL betting fans expected. Aside from the continuing dominance of Colorado, it’s wide open at the moment. Find the next NHL Playoff betting edge as the road to the Stanley Cup continues.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Colorado – Minnesota
With 15 goals scored in Game 1 of the Avalanche-Wild series, we’re hoping you had the Over.
Both teams were flying last weekend. That’s because they both have puck-moving, point-scoring D-men that are in the running for the Norris Trophy. Colorado’s Cale Makar and Minnesota’s Quinn Hughes are solid value plays for anytime goalscorer props at any point of this series. And each team has elite scoring at the top-end too, with Nathan MacKinnon for the Avs and Kirill Kaprizov for the Wild.
But there won’t be 15 goals per game going forward. Expect Colorado especially to lock things down more. They were first in the NHL during the regular season in goals allowed, at just 2.40. The Avs were first in the league on the PK too.
You might take another Over because the books still need to play it cautiously, but the best bet might be to sit on the sidelines for Game 2 totals betting to see if this series really will be a barn-burner for every game. NHL Playoff games are generally much tighter affairs.
Overall? Advantage Avalanche. We think MacKinnon looks possessed. Maybe he’s trying to make up for that missed Olympics gold (he had the game winner on his stick with a wide-open net). Either way, he’s hungry for his second Stanley Cup and Colorado has too much talent, even for the up-and-coming Wild.
Vegas – Anaheim
The Vegas Golden Knights came into their series as solid favorites to win it, and Game 1 confirmed the initial moneyline odds, even if it fell short in the O/U.
Anaheim, even though they handled Connor McDavid and the Oilers in the first round of the NHL playoffs, just doesn’t have the matchup advantage in enough areas of the game.
Nets? Carter Hart and Vegas over Lukas Dostal and Anaheim. Hart had a stronger GAA in Round 1, and Dostal was even pulled in one game. A hot goalie can make all the difference in a 7-game series.
Experience? Top players Jack Eichel and Mark Stone and a handful of other Vegas players won a Stanley Cup with the team just three years ago. Mitch Marner has 70 points in 75 career playoff games, and he’s eager to do farther than he could with the Leafs. Anaheim’s Alex Killorn has two Cups but they were with the Lightning way back in 2020/21, and otherwise they are a very green team when it comes to postseason play.
Coaching? This is where it tightens up. John Tortorella gave the Knights a huge spark when he joined the team in March. But he last won a Cup in 2004. What happens to Torts’ famous temper if things get tight? The Ducks’ Joel Quenneville has 3 Cups in the 2010’s and he just found a way to lock down McDavid in their first round series.
Head-to-head, Anaheim won all 3 meetings between the clubs this year.
Betting-wise, we’re not sure this series deserves the lopsided edge in odds that we’re seeing. Anaheim has players like Leo Carlsson, a shot machine, and Cutter Gauthier a rookie who hasn’t hit the infamous rookie wall yet. Both are great picks for anytime goalscorer bets in what should be a higher scoring series than Game 1 showed. If Dostal can find another level, this one could go long.
Montreal – Buffalo
With both teams each having a stellar top line and good depth in the remaining three lines, it could come down to goaltending.
Right now, Montreal’s Jakub Dobes gets the edge over either Buffalo goalie, Alex Lyon or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, just based on the NHL First Round alone. Dobes was lights-out in the Canadiens’ 7-game series over Tampa Bay, with a GAA of 2.00 and a save percentage of .923. He won Game 7 for Montreal virtually on his own. The Habs gave up three times as many shots in a game that the Lightning should have won.
The X factor here is whether the Sabres can bottle up the Canadiens’ top scorers, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, like Tampa did. The Lightning basically erased them for the entire series. But if they can get loose against Buffalo, and if you’re a regression better who thinks a 100-point player and a 50-goal scorer won’t stay quiet forever, then you’d lean Montreal. Even though Buffalo had more points in the regular season standings.
If you’re a vibes and momentum bettor… well, not sure we can help you. Both teams’ vibes are immaculate at the moment.
Buffalo won the Atlantic Division after sitting in last place in the entire Eastern Conference through mid-December. And they’re in the playoffs for the first time in 15 years – the fan base is going nuts. Montreal was a +220 ‘dog against the Bolts and were +4000 to win the Stanley Cup in NHL Futures before the playoffs started. They won in OT in Game 1 in their first round series with a seeing-eye puck and had more incredible puck luck in that deciding game on Sunday. Home crowds in Montreal are legendary.
Overall, the credo in other pro sports is that “defense wins championships”. If you think that applies to the NHL too, then Montreal gets the edge just based on the edge in nets.
Carolina – Philadelphia
With week-long layoff for the Hurricanes and the Flyers coming straight into the series off a 6-game series win over Pittsburgh, plenty of hockey talking heads thought Philly was in the right rhythm to score the upset in Game 1.
Carolina had other ideas. And by easily handling Philadelphia in Game 1 plus an OT win in Game 2, they put NHL Playoff betting fans on notice that this could be a short series.
Is this one over already? The odds are stacked against Philly. Teams that start a series 2-0 at home have gone on to win 88% of the time in the NHL’s Second Round.
With that in mind, we’re not going to be so contrarian to put any real wagers on Philadelphia to come back. You’ll find better bets in props.
Logan Stankoven, the ‘Canes’ shot machine, has hit Over 2.5 shots in five straight games. With the Flyers getting more desperate as the series goes on, count on more 2-on-1s and even more shots for Stankoven, with a better shot at being an anytime goalscorer too.
For the same reason, fade the offensive stats (or take the Unders) for Philly’s Travis Konecny and Matvei Michkov. Carolina will be able to lock them down even more since they can play more defensively with a series lead. Plus, Carolina’s PK has been crazy good, killing off 30 of 32 power plays since the NHL Playoffs started.