Final race-week betting guide with updated qualifying information, driver matchups, podium prices and race props
Get those United States GP picks set for this weekend – it’s got the storylines to make it a good one.
Kimi Antonelli is having his historic season, of course. But in the last two races the old dog Max Verstappen (all of 29) has bitten back with consecutive wins. He’s figuring out the car he hated at the beginning of the season and that’s trouble for every other driver’s F1 Austin odds.
COTA betting for any value will have to come from someone else down the board, but there’s no shortage of F1 drivers who could take advantage of all the passing opportunities on the Austin track.
Austin F1 Race Setup
COTA puts a lot of demands on an F1 car. Its layout combines fast changes of direction with slower corners. The uphill approach to the wide first corner also creates opportunities for drivers to attack immediately. Starting position is important but it’s not a lock when a driver is sitting P1 or P2 like it is at some F1 tracks.
With three practice sessions before qualifying on Saturday, you’ve got more evidence to assess than you’d get during a compressed Sprint schedule. Mostly a good thing, but it can cause some analysis paralysis that you want to avoid. Collect data during practice but rely on your F1 betting knowledge beyond one weekend in Austin too.
The same goes for Saturday qualis. Basing your Sunday picks just by who takes pole is a mistake, because Austin offers too many chances for lead changes. Williams’ technical preview for this year predicts Austin will be the easiest circuit of the 2026 season for overtaking.
Aside from placing a few early bets at bigger numbers ahead of practice and in-between practice sessions, you’re still in data collection mode on Saturday. Compare teammates and check whether traffic or a compromised lap affected the result.
Remember the forecast too, and factor in who you think has the better tactical team. COTA is notoriously hard on tires, with the fast changes of direction in the first sector stressing the fronts while acceleration out of the slower corners degrading the rears. Hot weather makes the wear even worse – this weekend won’t be a total furnace but the heat looks to be in the low 80s.
Max Verstappen
Verstappen is the outright selection that the oddsmakers are most bullish on.
His case comes from a solid combination of track success before this season and current form. He’s got four COTA victories since 2021. He’s taken 5 podiums in his last 5 races this year, including back-to-back wins in the most recent races at Singapore and Bahrain.
Verstappen isn’t the most tempting pick at +110, but that’s still a bettable price given his success in Austin.
Kimi Antonelli
Like Verstappen, Kimi Antonelli’s F1 Austin odds aren’t the flashiest at +220, but they’re more attractive than the Dutchman’s. He’s got 8 wins on the F1 circuit already this year, compared to just 2 for Verstappen. It’s Antonelli’s small dip in the past few races that might cause you to fade him at his current number.
Backing both favorites can dilute your return without creating much upside, obviously. Pick the stronger position here, which has to be Verstappen based on his history at COTA and his current car performance.
If for some reason that changes – say the Dutchman turns in some mediocre practice runs – then you’ve got a strong Plan B in Antonelli before spreading some picks on longer shots. Antonelli might get a nod from bettors just because he’s on the verge of history at COTA. He can become youngest ever F1 champion and lock up the season title with a win and a few other drivers falling back.
Don’t auto-fade the young phenom if he lands a bad spot on the grid for Sunday either. He’s capable of scrapping back to the front, as he did going from 19th to 1st in Italy this summer or pulling off a 16th to 5th race in Qatar less than a month ago. Both are either signs of trouble or a solid indication that he can make up 10-11 spots easily.
Russell Offers the Better Payouts
Russell’s +1100 is the next set of odds after Antonelli, so the oddsmakers are strongly sticking to the top two drivers only.
The Englishman has never won at COTA. That’s strike one against him. P5 is his best finish there, but his 2024 P6 stands out. Russell had to start back from pit lane, so it was a miracle he made his way through the field to finish in the points. Now, with a much better car underneath him, he might surprise everyone with that track knowledge and ability. Russell also has 8 podium finishes this year and 13 out of 17 top 10’s.
Still, that +1100 isn’t that tempting. The top two are just that much stronger. A better play could be his +500 to finish second. With Antonelli and Verstappen going at it 1-2, you might count on one of them taking too much risk and either overdoing it on a set of tires or going too aggressively into a pass and taking a penalty. The other takes the win and Russell slides into second.
Race Props for the Austin GP
Antonelli offers one of the better Austin GP props with +350 to put in the fastest lap. Austin’s layout is closest to Japan’s Suzuka and Silverstone in the UK, both tracks where the Italian took home the fastest lap title.
If you like the podium props, Hamilton and Leclerc offer the best value.
Lewis Hamilton has 5 wins at COTA and 9 podiums overall. Leclerc has 1 win there and 3 podiums, all within the last three seasons. Both drivers are sitting at +225 to land a top-3 in Austin.