The race formerly known as the Brazilian GP is set for this weekend with a lot on the line
The last time three Formula 1 drivers all had a shot at the Drivers’ Championship title was back in 2007, when Hamilton, Alonso, and Raikkonen were in the hunt.
Eighteen years later, it’s Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri racing for the trophy at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Verstappen has the experience in high-pressure, championship-deciding races, but Norris and Piastri have been in the hunt since Day 1 this season.
Check out the latest odds on Lucky Rebel.
Max Verstappen +125
It tells you something that Verstappen leads the odds to be the winner at Abu Dhabi, but Norris has the edge when it comes to the fastest qualifier odds. That something is experience.
When you’ve battled Lewis Hamilton down to the wire, as Verstappen has, the F1 oddsmakers are willing to give you the best odds even though they don’t think you’ll take pole position. Verstappen has also won at Yas Marina 4 times already.
Max is behind Norris by 12 points. He has to win the race to even have any real shot at the overall title. But he’s also the hottest driver on the circuit right now. Verstappen was down in the standings by 104 points only three months ago but has come on hard to make this an epic season clincher.
Betting on momentum, vibes, and experience? Verstappen is the play. If not to win the championship – Norris could still take 2nd or 3rd and win the season – at least the race itself.
Betting on the best team? Call it a draw, except McLaren did make a major strategy error last week in Qatar that left the door open for Verstappen to have a shot this weekend.
Betting on the best car? Red Bull is the best on the straights, but overall the best car performance is in Norris’ hands.
Lando Norris +225
Norris has the same number of wins this season – seven – as both Verstappen and Oscar Piastri. He landed an amazing 9 podiums in the first 10 races, racking up the points in the drivers’ standings and then coming in hot after the summer break to overtake Piastri.
He’s got the best car and he’s been the best driver overall this season. He needs to finish 1,2, or 3 to clinch the championship. Something he’s done 17 times this season.
For F1 betting, especially the casual bettors, all this might make you think he’s chalk.
But this is Norris’ first real shot at a Drivers’ Championship. And it’s not Verstappen’s first rodeo. In a race where hundredths of seconds can matter, you have to think twice when taking the first-timer against the vet to win at Yas Marina. Any hesitation or pressure on Norris’ part could put him back in the pack in seconds.
More intangibles to think about: Norris was steaming after the McLaren strategy fail last week in Qatar. The morale on the team is not optimal right now. On an F1 track, you want everyone on the team – especially the driver – to be clear-headed and focused. For F1 betting fans, these off-track issues can add up to enough noise to make a difference in the way a driver manages on race day. And on the way you bet.
Betting F1 Futures though, it might not matter to the books or to the drivers if Lando lands somewhere close behind Verstappen. Norris’ F1 Drivers’ Championship Winner odds still sit at a commanding -300, compared to Max’s +275, just based on the lead he currently has over the Dutchman.
Oscar Piastri +325
Norris’ McLaren teammate also started off the F1 season with a great run. He picked up four first-place finishes in the first six races of the year. But since the end of August, the Aussie hasn’t popped the champagne once. He came in second in Qatar last week to give some signal that he might be back on form, but his championship hopes are slim, sitting behind the two best drivers in the world at the moment.
What Piastri has to his advantage are team tactics, the same thing that held him back in a few races this year. The McLaren team now says they’re happy to have either one of their drivers win it all, so if it’s close and Norris is in position to help out his teammate, that could put Piastri back on top. Of course, it can go the other way depending on where Verstappen is sitting late in the race. That’s when Piastri might be asked to make some sacrifices for Norris.
Overall, Piastri has the skills and the car. But it’s his form coming into Abu Dhabi that has the oddsmakers putting him in third place. And his odds of taking the Drivers’ are way back in the rearview mirror at +1400.
The crazy scenario that we’re not recommending you follow? Both Norris and Verstappen go hard in the opening laps, neither driver gives an inch, and they put each other out of the race early with a collision – paving the way for a Piastri win and the title.
George Russell +1000
For the rest of the field after Norris-Verstappen-Piastri, they’ll need to rely on some trouble on the track for the big three if they want to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
That list starts with Russell, who has the best shot of the remaining drivers.
The Mercedes driver has 9 podiums this season, including two firsts. Any chaos on the track between the front-runners will benefit him the most.
Lewis Hamilton +4000
The dark horse of this race has to be Hamilton. Just based on F1’s ability to manufacture drama that is unlike any other sport.
It was Hamilton who lost a hugely controversial race in the final race at the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to Verstappen. It was the deciding race between the two drivers, and you have to imagine Lewis will enjoy playing the spoiler in some way if he sees an opportunity here.
Of course, he’s also got the big race experience and track knowledge if the right incidents go his way. He has the most wins (5) at Yas Marina of any driver on the circuit and took home a respectable 4th just last year.