Who’s got the inside track on the checkered flag for the USA GP?
The Circuit of the Americas in Austin is set for another USA Grand Prix on Sunday, October 19th. Sharps are already getting in on qualifying and watching who’s got the best shot at taking the checkered flag this year.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Max Verstappen +200
The Flying Dutchman has owned Austin for the past few years. Verstappen has won the USA GP three times in the past four races. And if you like betting on momentum and current form, Verstappen could be the play. He’s finished either first or second in each of his last four F1 races heading into Texas. Both driver and car are peaking at the right time.
Verstappen is famous for his competitive drive, and with 174 points still available over the final 6 races of the season, he’ll want to take Austin as much as anyone. The X factor here is that same hyper-competitive edge; it takes him too far sometimes, and a close turn where he doesn’t back off could put him in the pits early for repairs or cost him a penalty.
Lando Norris +210
Norris had the pole at last year’s USA GP and was looking good until a penalty late in the race dropped him to 4th place. After coming that close, he’ll be hungry to grab the top spot this year. F1 betting fans will remember that the penalty was controversial, since he had basically no choice to avoid hitting Verstappen. The stewards ended up giving him just a 5-second slap on the wrist instead of the standard 10-second one.
This is why Norris’ F1 odds are so tight with Verstappen heading into Austin. The only difference could be in Norris’ head. He’s coming off a clash on the track at Singapore with his own teammate Piastri, where Norris got the upper hand and didn’t back down. He even had some “consequences” from the McLaren leadership last week (yeah, we don’t know what those were either). How this impacts positioning and team driving could be interesting. If it’s close, will the team ask Norris to back off so Piastri can have a shot at a win and some important points to stay ahead of Max? They need to keep both their stars happy. F1 betting is always a cocktail: part car, part driver, and part psychological.
Oscar Piastri +250
While Norris is getting shorter odds, it’s Oscar Piastri’s strong showing this season that already helped wrap up the Team Championship for McLaren.
The Aussie has 7 wins on the GP circuit this season and 14 podiums overall. He also took the only other race in the U.S. this season, the Miami GP, back in May.
But his recent races could put the brakes on picking him to win this weekend in Austin. Piastri’s last 3 races went 3rd, DNF, and 4th. He’s definitely cooled off and the oddsmakers have noticed.
Still, the McLaren cars are never out of any race this season. And Piastri sees Verstappen in his rear-view mirror for the Drivers’ Championship. He’ll be determined not the let the Red Bull legend get any closer.
George Russell +1100
After Piastri, the F1 Austin odds take a big turn to the longer side. Form bettors will like that George Russell won the most recent race, the Singapore GP, just two weeks ago. That puts him behind the top three but still with strong enough odds to win again.
Given that he took the pole in Singapore, it looks like his car and his head are in the right place. But Mercedes hasn’t won the USA Grand Prix since Valterri Bottas took it back in 2019.
The X factor that could make Russell a worthwhile bet in Austin is his new 2026 contract. After wondering if Verstappen would make the jump to Mercedes and Toto Wolff for next season, Russell signed a new deal just last week. He’s talking about the great confidence boost he got from it, knowing the team is behind him 100%. With all the top F1 cars and drivers so close to the podium each week this season, confidence and vibes could make all the difference.
Charles Leclerc +1400
Leclerc set the track record for the fastest lap back in 2019, which is basically the Stone Age in driving years (ask Bottas). But it shows he is comfortable in Austin and may have some muscle memory from that epic run six years ago. Leclerc’s win there just one year ago might help too. His longer odds, even though he’s the reigning USA GP champ, have more to do with Norris and Verstappen’s dominance this year than his own slippage.
One slip-up by the McLaren or Red Bull teams and Leclerc will jump on it. At +1400, he’s a solid value play if you want to spread some cash outside of the favorites.
Lewis Hamilton +2000
Hamilton is still dangerous heading into any Grand Prix race. He’s currently sitting comfortably in sixth spot in the drivers’ standings this season. But it’s time to get real. Ferrari’s #2 hasn’t found the podium yet this season, and his last five races have ended up 12, DNF, 6, 8, and 8. Form betting fans won’t touch Hamilton this weekend.
Other F1 bettors, who might like to roll the dice on Hamilton for the 2025 Austin Grand Prix, will be looking at his overall history there. Forget 2024’s DNF after a Turn 3 spin due to a bad car. He took four straight second-place finishes before that, to go with 5 career wins there. Hamilton has missed the podium in Austin just twice since 2012.
Carlos Sainz +30000
If you feel like taking a long shot, Sainz would bring a hefty payout at +30000.
Even though he’s dropped off this season driving for Williams, keep in mind that when he was still with Ferrari last season, he finished second. Sainz also took pole position at the Circuit of the Americas back in 2022, so he’s no stranger to the track.