Brazil hadn’t lost at home in 39 years. Then they lost by six.
The 2014 Brazil team was a sure thing. Host nation. Five-time world champion. A home crowd that hadn’t watched their team lose anything that mattered since the 1970s. The model said 73 percent. The country said destiny. Everyone knew how this ended.
It took Germany six minutes to prove everyone wrong.
1. The Surest Thing In The Tournament Hero number: 73%
Brazil walked into the 2014 semifinal as the safe bet. Host nation, five-time World Cup winner, playing in front of its own crowd. FiveThirtyEight’s model gave Brazil a 73 percent probability of beating Germany and advancing to the final. They were missing Neymar due to a back injury and captain Thiago Silva due to suspension, but the country’s faith didn’t move. The favorite was the favorite. That was the whole problem. FiveThirtyEight
2. The Fortress Hero number: 39 years
Here’s the number that made the bet feel free. Brazil hadn’t suffered a competitive defeat on home turf in 39 years, since losing 3-1 to Peru in the 1975 Copa América — a run of 62 consecutive matches without losing. Sixty-two games. Four decades. An entire generation of Brazilians had never seen their national team lose a real match at home. The fortress had never been breached. Backing Brazil at home wasn’t a bet. It was a habit. Opta Analyst
3. Six Minutes Hero number: 6 minutes
Then the game stopped being a game. Germany scored four goals in a devastating spell of six minutes and 41 seconds, all before half-time. Toni Kroos scored twice in the space of one minute and eight seconds. By the 29-minute mark, Germany led 5-0 — the fastest five goals in World Cup history, according to ESPN. Anyone holding a live Brazil ticket watched the value drain out of it in real time. Not over half. Over the length of a coffee break. The Analyst + 2
4. The Number That Ended A Nation’s Tournament Hero number: 7-1
The 7-1 scoreline was the largest margin of victory in a World Cup semifinal in history. It matched Brazil’s most-lopsided defeat ever and was the first time the team had lost an official competitive match on home soil since 1975. It was Brazil’s heaviest defeat on home soil, full stop. They named it the Mineirazo. After the tournament, 10 of Brazil’s 2014 World Cup squad never played a single minute for the national team again. The surest thing in the tournament wasn’t just wrong. It was dismantled. MLSsoccer.com + 3
The model said 73 percent. The fortress was 39 years old. Germany needed six minutes. The check doesn’t always cash.
Latest World Cup odds at Lucky Rebel.
Suggested FAQ:
Q: When is the 2026 World Cup?
A: The 2026 FIFA World Cup runs from June 11 to July 19, 2026, making it the longest World Cup in history – 39 days.
Q: Where is the 2026 World Cup?
A: The 2026 FIFA World Cup is hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico — the first World Cup ever held across three nations in 16. The 16 host cities include New York/New Jersey, Los Angeles, Dallas, Miami, San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, Kansas City, Houston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Vancouver, Toronto, Guadalajara, Mexico City, and Monterrey. The final will be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on July 19, 2026.
Q: Is Brazil still in the 2026 World Cup?
A: No, Brazil was knocked out of the tournament on July 5 after a 2-1 defeat to Norway in the Round of 16. This early elimination marks Brazil’s worst performance in the tournament since 1990. Following the loss, star striker Neymar announced his retirement from international football.
Q: Who won the last World Cup?
A: Argentina won the 2022 FIFA World Cup, defeating France on penalties in one of the greatest finals ever played. The match finished 3-3 after extra time, with Argentina winning the shootout 4-2. It was Argentina’s third World Cup title and Lionel Messi’s first.
Q: Who is favored to win the World Cup?
A: Early favorites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup had Spain, France, England, Argentina, and Brazil. France is currently favored, with Argentina following closely, while England and Spain round out the top contenders. Odds and predictions will continue to change leading up to the 2026 World Cup based on injuries, qualifying results, and international form.
Sources:
- 7-1 largest semifinal margin, four-goals-in-six-minutes: mlssoccer.com/news/brazil-1-germany-7-2014-fifa-world-cup-semifinal-match-recap
- 39 years / 62 matches unbeaten at home, six minutes 41 seconds, Kroos in 68 seconds, 10 players never capped again: theanalyst.com/2022/07/brazil-1-7-germany-stats-story
- FiveThirtyEight 73% projection: fivethirtyeight.com/features/world-cup-semifinal-crib-notes-brazil-vs-germany
- Fastest five goals in WC history, 5-0 by 29 minutes: cbsnews.com/news/world-cup-2014-germany-routing-brazil-in-semifinal