The Avs are in tough, while Carolina and Montreal could go long
Four NHL teams left, battling it out for a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals.
NHL Playoff betting at this time of year means the lines are tight. But these playoffs – especially in the Eastern Conference – are seeing momentum shifts from game to game. There’s always a betting edge to be found.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche
The Avs are shocking the hockey world in these Western Conference Finals. For all the wrong reasons, though.
After the most recent loss in Game 3, and after they were up 3-0 into the second period in that matchup, you have to think the Avs are done.
The odds of winning Game 4 (and the series, if you’re Vegas) now have Colorado at +650 and Vegas at -1100.
The return of Cale Makar, the Avs’ elite d-man, did not help keep Vegas from scoring 5 straight to win that first game on Vegas’ home ice. He’s probably nowhere near 100% though, and his “upper body injury” isn’t going to heal itself in two days for Game 4.
How rough is that +650 Game 4 price for the Avalanche looking? At no point in NHL history has a team come back from 3-0 in the Conference Finals to win the series.
For hockey betting fans, that means finding an edge somewhere else.
Crazy enough, Colorado still has the favorite tag for Game 4 at -120, while Vegas is currently listed as EVEN. Looks like the oddsmakers are pricing in Colorado’s regular-season dominance plus Makar’s return – and both could be overvalued. Maybe they’re discounting Torts. Despite his overall success in the NHL, he’s only taken a team to the Stanley Cup Finals once, and that was 21 years ago.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Where to Find Value
It’ll be an interesting battle to watch: the desperation factor with the Avs’ backs against the wall against Vegas’ ability to close out the series. But those even odds look like a solid pricing edge ahead of puck drop for a Golden Knights team that has looked solid on offense and defense since the first game of the series. Could be a leg filler play as well.
NHL player props for the WCF show some value for Vegas’ Mitch Marner as an anytime goalscorer. He leads the NHL in playoff scoring, and +220 is a solid payout. He’s been held goalless in this series through three games. Count on regression to possibly see Marner bagging at least one as he keeps trying to prove he’s worth the $96 mil that he signed for last summer.
On the Colorado side, at +270 to score, Artturi Lehkonen is the play. He’s Mr. Clutch in big games, producing a Stanley Cup winner and several conference finals goals since 2021. With the Avs going all-out to save themselves from elimination, expect veteran players getting top-six minutes to be on the ice a lot. With that come extra chances for Lehkonen to bag a goal.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Based on the stat sheet, the Hurricanes should be chalk for the remainder of the games in the Eastern Conference Finals.
They outshot Montreal massively in Game 2 and Game 3, by a total of 64-25 combined. But the scores were 3-2 each time, and if it weren’t for a crossbar or an offside, the ‘Canes could be down 3-0 right now.
The question on hockey betting fans’ minds is simple: do the Canadiens have any gas left in the tank? They’ve been through two straight seven-game series, while Carolina cruised through two straight sweeps and had 11 days off before Game 1 of the ECF.
Montreal’s low shot output and general inability to close is what has hockey heads saying they’re running on empty. For Game 4 at home – where they’ve been a dismal 2-5 in the playoffs – the oddsmakers agree. The Hurricanes are sitting at a -147 to take Game 4, compared to Montreal’s +127.
Series-wise, the books are giving the ‘Canes a much bigger edge at -550. For a series where the last two games looked bad on paper but could easily have resulted in W’s for Montreal, the Habs’ +390 to win the series looks pretty tempting. The gap in the odds isn’t reflected in how close the games have been, especially when you look at how the Canadiens spanked Carolina in Game 1.
Where to Find Value
For Game 4, you have to think it’s do or die for Montreal. They’ll be throwing everything at Carolina to avoid going down 3-1. Gas in the tank? The Canadiens are the youngest team in the league, so legs and stamina are less of a question mark than they would be for an older team.
There are close to 140 bets for Game 4 of Carolina-Montreal, so you know there are going to be some value plays.
Carolina’s Nikolaj Ehlers has been buzzing the net in every game of this series so far, scoring the game winner in Game 2. He’s lower down the anytime goalscorer odds at +235, and with the Canadiens focusing their top defensive players on Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis, Ehlers, playing way back on the third line, could continue to generate shots.
Alex Newhook, the Game 7 hero for the Habs against both Tampa Bay and Buffalo, has gone quiet this series. He’s been a presence on the ice – it’s just his goal output has tapered off. At +325, regression could be a factor as he seems to elevate his game for the highest-pressure games.
There’s an interesting play on a Game & Series bet. You’re getting +475 for Montreal to win Game 4 and win the series. Not too bad, given their road warriors’ record of 7-3 during the 2026 NHL playoffs. If you think Montreal lays it all on the line for Game 4 but still runs out of gas before the end of the series, you can get a solid +220 for Montreal to win Game 4 but lose the series overall.
