Fighting for spots in the Conference Finals
The Second Round of the NHL Playoffs has seen one team book their ticket to the Conference Finals, while 6 teams continue to scrap it out every other night.
Colorado – Minnesota
With a 3-1 series lead, the Avalanche look like they’ll be rolling into the Western Conference Finals by the weekend, with a few days off to watch Vegas and Anaheim battle it out.
Colorado has been sitting in the pole position for the Stanley Cup NHL Futures since very early in the season. This postseason run hasn’t hurt that number (currently +135).
It’s tough to find holes in their game, and they tightened up the one loose spot – giving up 6 goals to the Wild in the series opener – by letting in just 5 in their last three games combined. The eye test also tells you that Minnesota is just being outclassed in this series, by Cale Makar on D and Nathan MacKinnon and the rest of the team’s forwards on offense.
So your Avs-Wild bets might be limited to just one more game this week. There’s not much value in MacKinnon’s props – he’s the only player in the matchup with minus-odds for scoring a goal – but if you want to take a flier, look at Wild d-man Quinn Hughes for +500 to score. He’s an elite player who carries the puck like a point guard. And in elimination games, like Wednesday’s Colorado-Minnesota game, coaches give extra-heavy minutes to their top players. Hughes will be on the ice a ton and he’ll be unloading shots every chance he gets.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Vegas – Anaheim
The Ducks are surprising NHL betting fans by putting up a solid fight against a Golden Knights team that’s more talented and has all the edge in experience and scoring ability. At 2-2 heading into Tuesday night’s game, the series could go seven easily.
NHL oddsmakers are still not giving Anaheim the benefit of the doubt though, putting their Stanley Cup futures at +2200 to Vegas’ +900. We’re not sure that big of a gap is justified. Especially with Vegas goalie Carter Hart giving up more goals than expected in the series. He’s also running a .891 save percentage. Cup-winning teams historically have a goalie putting up .910 or higher over the course of the playoffs. The Series odds for Anaheim are a respectable +133. That’s maybe not a ton of upside given the risk, however.
We already talked about Leo Carlsson being a shot machine for Anaheim, and while he’s continued to get looks, his goal output is due. Look for Carlsson’s anytime goalscorer odds to provide a solid payout, especially if Hart continues to look beatable.
The risk for Anaheim is that Vegas continues its 5-0 record in playoff series’ Game 5 when tied up 2-2.
The moneyline for Vegas is -155 currently, a safe number. Safer when you look at the lineup that has Mitch Marner breaking out to lead the NHL with 16 playoff points. Jack Eichel in the top 5 scorers as well, and Brett Howden with 7 goals so far. Coach John Tortorella has them primed to take over the series, and you can expect a tighter defensive effort to help cover for Hart’s performance so far.
Montreal – Buffalo
Two straight wins for the first time in the entire playoffs has Montreal riding the momentum heading into Game 4 and beyond against Buffalo.
If your bets were loaded with Montreal’s third and fourth-line players, then you’re a certified sharp. No one expected one the best lines in hockey – Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky – to be almost skunked by Tampa and now Buffalo; while no-names like Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook light the lamp every night. But that’s where we are. And the Canadiens’ Stanley Cup futures have moved from +4000 at the start of the playoffs to +900 today.
Does that leave you with any edges on the Sabres-Canadiens series? Montreal is now -250 to win the series, so maybe fade that play. Not much juice left.
Where you can look is at scoring props and player props. The Canadiens have scored 11 goals in their last two games. Teams tend to make serious adjustments from game to game in the playoffs, so expect the Sabres to try and tighten up any open space for Games 4 and 5 at least. Jakub Dobes, Montreal’s goalie, has been stingy all postseason, with a 2.20 GAA and a saver percentage of .918. Expectations are he’ll stay hot, so if Buffalo manages to lock things down on their end, the Totals of 6.0 or 6.5 might be vulnerable. That means going with the Under for each one.
For NHL player props, look for regression stats to point you towards some better numbers.
That means there’s stronger upside in anytime goalscorers like Ivan Demidov (currently +320) for Montreal and Alex Tuch (+205) for Buffalo. Both are snipers who are overdue. Tuch, a 33-goal scorer in the regular season, had 4 goals in the First Round series against Boston, but he’s been shooting blanks in three games so far against Montreal.
Carolina – Philadelphia
By the time the Eastern Conference Finals start, Carolina might need a fresh training camp to find their legs again.
The Hurricanes swept the Flyers in 4 straight, so now they kick back and wait for the winner of the Montreal-Buffalo series. If that one goes seven, Carolina will be looking at almost two weeks between games.
We’ll get to it next week, but if that happens, don’t auto-fade the Montreal/Buffalo winner just because they might be tired. A period or too of rust could be a real factor for the ‘Canes, which could mean a Game 1 upset.
Beyond that, Carolina is currently a big favorite (-250) to take the Eastern Conference. Hold up on playing that number – it’s a heavy price with little upside as it is, and if the ‘Canes end up facing a red-hot Montreal team. You’ll get a better number next week.
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