Picking dark horses can pay off, but don’t just spray and pray.
Kentucky Derby longshots typically start in the +2000 range. For this running, that gives you 10+ horses that fit the criteria.
But not all longshots are created equal. The true Derby sleepers that have a real shot all have some key factors that put them ahead of the other dark horses.
Are Derby Longshots Just Lottery Tickets?
Short answer: no.
Long answer: history has shown that Kentucky Derby favorites actually win the race close to 34% of the time. So that leaves plenty of room to cash when the favorite doesn’t fire the other 66% of the time. And with the shortest odds for the biggest names offering bettors marginal payouts with little value, it’s worth looking for real value bets that the market has put into the longshot category.
Longshots and Derby sleepers are not all scrubs. They’ve earned their way into the big race, for starters. Sure, there are the bombs at +7000 that need to rely on a huge lucky break, but the +2000 to +4500 range has some real contenders. They’ve either got an elite team and trainer behind them, some solid recent results that show they might be peaking at just the right time, or some other X factor that you can use for your Derby betting strategy.
Bottom line? You can get a solid payout for picking the Derby winner so long as you’re not just throwing darts and going with a random horse whose name grabs you.
2026 Kentucky Derby Longshots
Potente (+2000)
The horse racing sites have been talking about Potente’s, er, potential all week, after going five furlongs in :57:80 last week in a workout. He’s got the legendary trainer, Bob Baffert, in his corner too. Potente finished in 2nd place at the Santa Anita Derby in early April, behind only So Happy (who’s sitting at +1000 for the Run for the Roses).
A month before that race, Potente took home 1st at the San Felipe Stakes. So that’s a first and a second in two of the main prep races for the Kentucky Derby? At +2000? With Baffert? We’re interested.
Incredibolt (+2500)
Rested or rusty? A 7-week pre-Derby layoff has Incredibolt in the longshot category, mainly because oddsmakers like to see more recent results and solid form that is trending in the right direction. Still, this is a runner with some of the best final-fraction speed numbers in the field, with three wins in 5 starts, including a 4-length victory in March at the Virginia Derby.
Golden Tempo (+3000)
Golden Tempo is a deep closer. Not a statistically ideal trait for the way Churchill Downs sets up for the Derby, but with closing power as a core strength it could come in handy based on his outside post position (18). It will allow him to avoid early congestion, and if the pace melts down, he got as good a shot as any of the top horses to make a clean rally. With two firsts and two third-place finishes since late December, he’s good value at +3000.
Pavlovian (+3500)
Betting fans who are looking Derby sleepers will be salivating for Pavlovian. His trainer is Doug O’Neill, who has two previous Derby winners on his resumé. Pavlovian came in a close second in March at the Louisiana Derby, a solid prep race for the Run for the Roses. He’s got some mileage – 10 starts – which can be taken a sign of either solid experience or too much wear and tear. It’s a glass half-full/half-empty thing. With that big payday looming, we’re more the half-full type.
Intrepido (+4500)
This is a tempting price tag for one reason: Intrepido is a Bob Baffert horse. The legendary trainer has six Kentucky Derby winners in his career. His one real longshot was War Emblem back in 2002, at +2000. But War Emblem was peaking right before the Derby, while Intrepido started out hot last season but has slipped in 2026. Then again, if anyone can revive a horse and get it ready for the Kentucky Derby after a few months of sub-par finishes, it’s Baffert.
How to Actually Bet Longshots in the Derby
Once you’ve found a dark horse you like, the key is to bet it in a way that fits your bankroll and risk tolerance. A longshot win bet is exciting, no question: if a +2000 or +4000 horse that you genuinely believe in wins, the straight ticket can make your year. But many serious players also lean into exotics to spread out their bets in a field with so many horses coming out of the gates. The Kentucky Derby has the biggest field in the Triple Crown, with 20 horses compared to 14 at the Preakness and 16 at Belmont. (Side note: you might want to wait till scratch time, normally Friday at 9:00am ET, before really betting on that +6000 horse. He might not even make the starting 20 unless a better horse is scratched).
Exactas and trifectas are where Derby longshots have created some hefty payouts. When Giacomo shocked the race in 2005, as an example, the $2 exacta with another, more moderate longshot underneath returned just under $10K. Some bettors who put down bigger stakes likely made life-changing money in those two minutes on a Saturday in May.
Sharps approach their Kentucky Derby longshot bets by deciding what role their longshot runners could realistically play. If they see a path where everything collapses early in the race and your horse has proven it can win by having solid recent results, they might include it on top of exactas and trifectas. You can still do this too – while still respecting logical contenders.
And along the same lines, if you’ve done the analysis like the sharps have and think your pick is more likely to have a strong run but there’s just too much quality in the top one or two favorites, go for second or third at a price that is still a big plus-money number. Especially if your longshot is a deep closer. Keeping it just below the more reliable win candidates, and not betting the farm, is a solid Derby betting tip.
The Derby’s huge pools make even small exotic tickets worth exploring because you’re not fighting liquidity. There’s still big money in the middle of the pack odds-wise, numbers that fir the longshot category because there’s such a gap between their odds and the odds for the favorites. The shape of the race – while everyone else just chases the obvious names – is what you want to analyze and then weigh against your horse’s strengths and its starting position.
Longshots by definition lose more often than they win. Even when the Derby is won by a non-favorite two-thirds of the time, it’s often by a horse with shorter odds.
By all means play some longshots and enjoy it when they cash. The Kentucky Derby only comes around once a year, and it’s over in two minutes. Just keep your expectations realistic. And don’t get into the action just for action’s sake – have a strategy that comes from some analysis, so that you can bet on longshots with confidence.