The trade deadline always shift the MLB pennant race odds. This year is no different, except the big dogs got bigger. August MLB betting tips focus on the next tier of teams to find out where the real value still sits.
When you get into MLB playoff race betting, catching the longer number on teams that managed the deadline the best is key to beating the books.
MLB August Betting Trends: Pennant Race Value Bets & Future Odds
In August, MLB futures start getting cleaner, with more separation between contenders and pretenders. That’s if you know what to ignore.
The casual betting public gets caught up in the standings and recent the trade deadline headlines. The sharps separate teams that picked up a middle reliever with a brand name and are just having a hot weekend or two from teams that are built to hold up through the final seven weeks.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are still the standard of course. They’ll spend insane money (welcome Tarik Skubal) every year and their World Series odds will shorten even more. They hit mid-August at 70-47 with MLB’s best run differential at +140. Even a recent 3-7 stretch isn’t scaring any at the books or in the betting public.
Any hair-trigger bettors getting spooked by that mini-slump probably won’t feel great by the end of September. They still all the weapons at the mound and at the plate, and Skubal makes them even more dominant. This isn’t the spot to be too cute with the Dodgers. There’s a difference between being overpriced and just being too good to fade.
So with LAD still in pole position, the more interesting betting momentum changes that August brings are with some less obvious contenders.
Teams to Monitor and Capitalize on in the AL and NL
Keep a close eye on the MLB Wild Card standings and compare them to the way the betting odds shift.
In the American League pennant race, Tampa Bay has moved into a legitimate AL East fight, while the Yankees and Red Sox are still dangerous. Each team helped themselves at the trade deadline, so you need to determine who has the best depth and whose MLB futures offer the biggest upside from their current number. Keep in mind the brand name appeal of NYY and the Bosox. That could shift lines beyond what they’re really worth for either team and leave some extra juice on the table for less shiny teams like Tampa.
In the NL, the Cubs are one of the teams worth tracking daily, with the most value hiding in their futures for division races and the World Series. They stocked up at the deadline and solidified their spot in the Wild Card race.
All of these teams have a better foundation than the rest of the pack. That means their odds might move too much to the downside when they’re actually stronger than a single loss or a flat weekend would suggest.
Run-Line Value Is More Situational Now
The run line becomes more useful in August because the market often overprices strong favorites on the moneyline. A team priced at -200 or -220 may be the better club, but you still need to ask whether they’re likely to win by two or more runs. That’s extra important in things like divisional games and games with two aces going head-to-head. They’ll often be lower-total matchups. That means less room to stretch a lead by 2+.
The Dodgers are a good example of an MLB team that can justify laying -1.5 when the matchup is right. Their league-best RD shows they create real separation, not just one-run wins. If the total is 7 or 7.5 though, the books are cautious of the matchup turning into a slugfest. Runs might be scarce. In that situation, a 3-2 or 4-3 W is in play, which makes the moneyline the safer route than the run line. If that moneyline number looks ugly and without much value, consider making a leg of a 3- or 5-leg parlay.
Underdog Run Lines FTW
Baseball’s +1.5 is valuable when the ‘dog has a dependable starter on the mound and bullpen that’s relatively fresh, even in August. They should also have enough contact ability to avoid getting buried early. That doesn’t mean taking every road underdog just because it has a run and a half. Even if favorites are still winning more often outright, the ‘dogs have been more competitive against the run line when you look at recent history. Losing close is more common in baseball, with moneyball metrics putting pitchers under strict pitch counts. That often takes a starter out in the 5th or 6th, before they even sniff trouble.
Look for spots where a public favorite is getting inflated by a recognizable starter and a recent hot streak. Throw in a must-win late August storyline that may or may not worth they hype. The urgency of a pennant race matters, but it doesn’t produce automatic wins for the favorite that could use the W more than the underdog playing out the stretch.
A desperate team with a thin bullpen is still a team with a thin bullpen, especially if they’ve been playing a playoff-like stretch just to get to this point. If the favorite needs its ace to cover -1.5 while the relievers are running on fumes, the underdog run line is often the more logical side.
World Series Futures: Price Matters
The Dodgers are still the clear World Series futures favorite at +150, miles ahead of the #2 Yankees (+700). It didn’t help anyone else in major league baseball that LA added two-time Cy Young winner Skubal to kick off August.
Unless you think the Yankees can pull some serious Yankees aura and get back to the top of the majors, the betting value sits in the next tier. You want teams with a real path to the MLB playoffs, and then once the games start, who know what can happen? The Blue Jays came within inches of winning it last season and they were relative longshots in August of that year.
That means you’re looking at teams like the Cubs and the Rays, both sitting at +1500 currently. Both made meaningful moves to make a run in October. Of course, the Red Sox and their amazing turnaround can’t be counted out. A 15-game winning streak, a record that went from 32-46 on June 24th to 64-54 by early August can’t be ignored. Their WS number moved up the board of course, but +1100 can still produce a nice payday and it’s a number that might not be around by the end of September.