Miami-Notre Dame and Georgia-Ole Miss are big CFP matchups this weekend
Somehow we’re already at Week 10 of the NCAA Football schedule.
The season looks way different now compared to just two months, when everyone had NCAA odds that included Ohio State and Texas at the top of board and teams like Utah nowhere near it.
NCAAF Week 10 betting now has a good chunk of a season’s worth of data to build from, so the lines are tight. The biggest games this week all have CFP implications as every school with a shot is looking towards January. That includes the Utes vs. BYU, Georgia vs. Ole Miss, and Miami vs. Notre Dame.
Miami vs. Notre Dame
No. 1 Miami brings an 8-0 record to South Bend to face No. 4 Notre Dame, which enters at 7-1.
The ‘Canes are holding down the #1 now for several weeks and they’re not going to let it go easily. It’s the Fighting Irish that get the favorite tag though, at -4.5. A #4 laying that many points against a #1?
That comes down to two things: Home field advantage and the C.J. Carr mismatch.
While Miami is tops in the FBS in rushing defense, giving up only 60 yards per game, they’re a different story when it comes to defending the pass. The perfect storm for a bad matchup. Carr has 18 TDs and 1,849 yards passing this season, versus just one INT. He’s completing close to 70% of his passes too. Miami’s secondary is coughing up over 250 ypg, which ranks only 121st in the country.
If this one is an aerial shoot-out as expected, Miami could definitely beat those 4.5 points. They lead the nation in points per game with 47.6. That puts Notre Dame in a tougher spot. The Irish need to attack Miami’s weak passing D, but that also takes away the run game and gives the ‘Canes more possessions and more opportunities for Darian Mensah to go to work. His numbers are even better than Carr’s: 2, 425 yards, 25 TDs, only one pick, and a completion rate of 80.7%.
Mensah has done it all against unranked teams though. Just last weekend, Miami, barely squeaked by UNC, 28-35. The Notre Dame defense has given up just 13.4 ppg so far this season.
If this one stays close, Miami-Notre Dame betting fans might look at the U as the problem when it comes to discipline. Miami’s decades-old swagger costs them in terms of penalties. They commit close to 60 yards per game, double the Irish’s 28.9 ypg – which is the best in the NCAA.
Utah vs. BYU
The home team gets the nod again for this one, for even more points too.
No. 3 Utah hosts No. 7 BYU and the Utes are favored by 5 points currently. Talking about those NCAA football championship futures, this is the first time ever that both teams are in the top 10 in the AP Top 25 at the same time and are matched up against each other.
It’s the Utes’ balanced attack that has them close to a TD ahead ATS. They’re chewing up 227 yards per ground on average, good for 8th in the country, thanks to Wayshawn Parker. That’s balanced out by 258 ypg passing, thanks to Devon Dampier. He’s a dual-threat QB whose only weakness is the high 7 picks he’s thrown this season. If the Cougars can rattle him early, that could be a factor.
The possession game will be key here. Parker’s excellent season hasn’t seen him face a run D as tough as BYU’s. The Cougars only give up 100 ypg, 20th-best in college football. If they bottle up Parker early or jump out to a lead, that will force Dampier to make more throws and the picks might follow.
That’s a script that we can see as most likely. Which makes us lean towards BYU beating the spread and the game going under the current 48.5 total. Keep an eye for LJ Martin’s status as gametime approaches. He’s close to coming back from an injury. Having the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year back in the game would be a major boost for BYU and an outright upset win could be in the cards. If he’s out, or plays limited snaps in the early going, then Utah’s favorite status looks stronger.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss
The SEC has dominated the weekly betting previews all season long, so it’s good to have those other conferences to discuss.
We have to talk about the Georgia-Ole Miss odds though. The #2 Bulldogs taking on the #12 Rebels. The Georgia -3.5 spread tells you this one is closer than a regular two versus twelve matchup.
The home field + desperation factor has to be on the oddsmakers minds here. That’s why the Rebels are so close to just a field goal’s difference. At 6-2, they can’t take a single loss from here until the end of the NCAAF season if they want to sniff the CFP.
They could be encouraged by Gunner Stockton’s most recent outing and will no doubt be hitting the game film to see where he’s vulnerable. The Georgia QB had a rough weekend against the unranked Gators, throwing zero TDs, just 13 completions, and barely passing the 100-yard mark.
Ole Miss will be relying heavily on their own QB, Trinidad Chambliss. He’s having another great year, but the injury to elite RB Kewan Lacy (he’s a big question mark for this game) puts it all on Chambliss’ shoulders. Like Dampier above, it’s Chambliss’ 8 INTs already this year that makes a heavy passing game more open to attack by the Bulldogs’ defense. Against the 10th-best D in the country, the Rebels need all the offense they can get.
With Lacy in the lineup and unrestricted, you might like the Rebels to cover at home. They have to lay it all on the line. Without him, it could be Georgia’s day.