Kucherov and the Lightning highlight another big week of drama to bet on in the NHL
NHL odds can’t factor in drama. This NHL season has already had its share and this week it’s Nikita Kucherov’s turn. How will his trade request impact his team and his level of play?
Plus, your NHL picks will have to factor in the regular Maple Leafs drama as the knives are out for their goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. Can he go back to his Stanley Cup form?
A betting preview with some contrarian plays that could cash is here.
Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs made a big splash in the offseason with a new GM and a number of signings, plus they snagged the #1 pick overall in Gavin McKenna.
After 16 games have passed, what’s their report card? Maybe a B, or a B+ if you’re from the greater Toronto area. They’re holding their own in the brutally competitive Atlantic division.
McKenna has contributed and shown signs of a future star. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, picked up in the summer, not so fast. Kirill Marchenko, solid enough, but he’s out with an injury.
Bobrovsky has been the team’s weak link, and at $7 million per year, a glaring one. He’s 3-5-2 in his starts and has allowed 3+ goals in 9 of his 10 starts.
The good news is that Auston Matthews looks (and is playing like) he’s happier than he has been in years. He’s got 24 points already on the season and can carry games by himself.
Utah comes into the Leafs-Mammoth game as a bit of a surprise favorite at -132 currently. It’s the Leafs’ injuries (John Tavares is close to returning) and Bobrovsky’s poor play that tip the NHL odds towards the Mammoth.
We’re not convinced though. The Leafs at home at +112 makes sense. They’re scoring more per game than Utah, the Mammoth are a mediocre 3-4 in their last seven, and while Utah does have the NHL’s best power play percentage, Toronto’s PK is #2 in the league and can counter it well.
No matter what your betting instinct is telling you on the moneyline, the Over at 6.5 looks like the move. The Leafs are averaging 3.75 goals per game, Utah 3.60.
Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals
Dallas brings the defensive advantage to DC. The Stars lead the NHL in goals allowed at 2.14 per game, plus in shots allowed at 22.3 and the league’s best PK at 93.6%.
Washington, on the other hand, doesn’t come close in any of those categories. The Caps rank 18th in goals allowed at 3.23, 21st in shots allowed at 28.1 and 17th on the penalty kill at 77.3%.
This is why we’re fading the moneyline for both teams. At -108 (Dallas) and -112 (Washington), the value in going with a pure favorite or a live ‘dog is missing. Stars’ goalie Jake Oettinger, with the 3rd-best GAA in the league at 1.63, should be able to shut down the Capitals’ offensive edge – so if you want to lean Dallas, that’s your script.
For anytime goalscorers, look to the blueline for better payouts. Washington’s Cole Hutson, off a 2-goal game last week against the Preds, is gaining confidence with every game. His +460 offers great value as he picks up more and more ice time on 5-on-5 and the power play.
A longer shot but a solid positive regression candidate to score is Caps’ forward Tom Wilson (+265). He might be slowing down in his 14th season and has just two goals on the year so far, but he’s coming two straight 30+ goal seasons and you have to figure he’s got more coming soon. Plus, with Oettinger playing lights-out in net, you know Wilson is going to be parked in the crease all game.
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
In a game of opposing disgruntled superstars, this one should be interesting.
Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, the captain who wants to abandon ship, is benched indefinitely though. At least Tampa’s Nikita Kucherov, who just sent shockwaves through the league by saying he wants out too, is at least still playing. For now.
The Wings-Lightning game still has plenty of firepower, but it’s mostly on the southern team’s side.
Tampa has also won six straight at home. The X-factor here is that Tuesday’s matchup will be the first time in front of the home crowd for Kucherov since he made his trade request public last Friday.
How do you play this one then? Emotions will be high – fans will either shower him with appreciation or turn on him. The player himself, we expect he’ll come out firing. He’s playing with a massive chip on his shoulder suddenly.
That’s why we like the longer odds of 2+ goals for Kuch at +800. A long shot, sure, but this is not an average Tuesday night home game.
Game-wise, that +275 moneyline bet for Detroit could be tempting. Seems high in a game where both teams are 6-2-2 in their last 10. The Red Wings look like they’ve gotten past the Larkin soap opera and are playing some decent hockey.
Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins
A Sunday afternoon game between two beasts in the East this early in the season is a treat for NHL betting fans.
The Bruins came into the week occupying the spot that the Panthers probably feel should be theirs: first in the Atlantic.
Florida is missing Barkov and Marchand, but they still bring a very physical game and can put pucks in the net. Matthew Tkachuk had scored at least a point in 12 of the team’s first 14 games, and his brother Brady can score in bunches – both are solid anytime goalscorer bets.
Boston, the league’s biggest surprise so far this NHL season, is getting it done with a balanced attack. Goalie Jeremy Swayman is in the top 10 in every meaningful goaltending category and the team is 6th in scoring overall. Grab the league’s top-scoring rookie James Hagens for good value in the goalscorer market.