Preview Week 9 NCAA Football games and find out where the smart money is looking
Don’t look now but the U is back on top.
It’s been 24 years since the University of Miami has hit #1 in the AP Top 25. The team that is still the OG when it comes to school swagger is back and they are heading to face Bill Belichick’s UNC team that is still looking to find an identity. The Miami-UNC lines will look lopsided but you can’t fully count out the old dog in a high-profile game.
The Ohio State-USC odds for this weekend are tighter as the Buckeyes have slipped to #2, and you’ve got the World’s Biggest Cocktail party happening again as the Gators face the Bulldogs. Florida-Georgia bets won’t carry the same weight as when the Gators were in the national championship conversation, but this is still a huge SEC game.
Florida vs. Georgia
Just two weeks removed from an embarrassing loss to unranked Auburn, the Bulldogs will be playing with a chip on their shoulder to try and salvage their season.
The field will be neutral-ish, with the game being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta instead of the ‘Dawgs actual home field. That could help Florida betting fans feel more confident by an extra point or two compared to a true road game.
That +11.0 spread that Florida is currently getting looks big. The Gators have stepped up for this annual party even though they’ve had softer teams in recent years, going 3-1 ATS in the last 4 matchups between the two. Double-digit spreads always give the underdog some contrarian betting edges.
The “World’s Largest Cocktail Party” game goes back over 100 years, and Georgia has the edge with 14 more wins. Look for that to climb to 15 this weekend with a moneyline bet on the Bulldogs but give Florida a very close look on the spread.
Florida RB Jaden Baugh could be the X-factor here and keep things close. He’s having an elite season with 760+ yards rushing and 13 TDs already. The retractable roof will keep conditions perfect for Baugh, whose cutback style and yards after contact could benefit from optimal footing.
Factor in the Bulldogs’ run D and you might really like a Gators upset with Baugh’s game. Georgia has allowed 161 and 192 yards rushing in their last two games.
Watch the injury reports closely this week before putting all your chips in one way or the other. Georgia QB Gunner Stockton’s shoulder is a question mark. Losing Stockton, or having him less than 100%, changes the stakes and put the Gators in an even better position.
Miami vs. UNC
Speaking of chips on shoulders, reclaiming the top seed after 24 years will give Miami all the motivation it needs to back it up.
This UNC isn’t last year’s UNC though. Belichick is slowly turning the program around. They’re 4-3, but that includes a razor-thin OT loss to Syracuse just last weekend plus a win over ranked Pitt and beat the spread by 10 points in a loss to #3 Notre Dame.
If you want to continue the pattern of crazy results in the NCAA this season so far, look at UNC’s +475 moneyline for a long shot with some teeth. For three straight weeks now, a top-2 team in the country has been upset by an unranked team. That puts Miami in the crosshairs of a home team with a savvy coach who has some momentum building.
Factor in UNC’s 91.7% red zone success rate, plus their penalty discipline vs. Miami’s (31 yards per game vs the U’s 62 ypg), and you could write a game script for a Miami-UNC upset or at least a scenario where the Tar Heels beat the 14.5-point spread for the ‘Canes.
Ohio State vs. USC
Speaking of chips on shoulders, the Trojans are licking their wounds after an even fresher loss to Wisconsin last weekend. USC managed just 7 points on offense. No chance that same kind of effort keeps them within the +7 that they’re getting against OSU.
With two losses now on their record and that 17-point loss to the Badgers, the Trojans were booted from their #16 spot and fell out of the AP Top 25 completely.
How do they regain their edge this weekend against a Buckeyes squad that is eager to reclaim the #1 spot in the country? We find the +7 is doing a lot of work. USC is 2-6 ATS this year and OSU has all the weapons to make this a double-digit win.
Sure, Julian Sayin is out. Jeremiah Smith, the Buckeyes’ O-line and defense are all in though.
That still gives them an edge over a USC offense that’s only 106th in the country in rushing. Jayden Maiava at QB gives them a shot at covering, but with that weak run game USC will have trouble with time of possession, putting the ball in Smith’s hands more often. It also means the Buckeyes can drop back more in pass coverage because they don’t need to respect the run, limiting Maiava’s passing impact.
Even if they get their passing game in gear, it doesn’t necessarily equate to points on the board. USC passed for a respectable 258 yards against the Badgers and still managed that lone TD.
Another reason to go Buckeyes on the moneyline and the spread? While the Trojans were getting bodied by Wisconsin last weekend, the Buckeyes had a bye week, a chance to regroup. That includes getting extra reps for their backup, whether it’s Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair.