Plus look for LSU to come out looking for revenge against Texas A&M
The Lane Kiffin Bowl is over.
Your CFB Week 4 picks will have to come from two ranked matchups that also have real playoff weight though.
No. 1 Texas heads to No. 14 Tennessee while No. 20 Oregon visits No. 12 USC in prime time.
The Texas-Tennessee odds and Oregon-USC betting picks are about as tight as you’ll get this early in the college football season. Good news is there are other ways to play them and other games where you might find a better betting edge.
Texas at Tennessee: Take the Home Points?
Texas opened as a 5.5-point road favorite, but the market has pulled that number down. Public handle likes the headliners like Arch Manning, but this around it looks like Tennessee is getting the respect they deserve.
Now with Texas at -6.0, the Vols are close to a field goal away from covering.
Why? For starters, it’s the Longhorns’ first road game of the season and Neyland Stadium is not a soft landing spot. Then you can point to a lot of talent on the Tennessee side of the ball.
Manning is still the spotlight magnet though. He’s been productive through three starts, completing 60 of 97 passes for 664 yards, seven touchdowns and two INTs. Those aren’t really Heisman numbers though, and he’s only 2-3 on the road in his college career so far. Add in these nuggets: in both those wins, against unranked Mississippi State and Kentucky, he needed overtime to pull out a W. The two road SEC losses saw the ‘Horns lose by 33 points combined.
Tennessee freshman QB Faizon Brandon could be the storyline as much as Manning. He’s already put up 552 passing yards, six passing TDs, 137 rushing yards and three rushing scores.
Brandon’s mobility and those shaky Manning stats make Tennessee very much a live home ‘dog.
Over/Under and Props Bets for Texas-Tennessee
The player prop bets starts with Brandon’s rushing production.
Specifically, his rushing yardage Over deserves a serious look. That’s because Tennessee will need to use a lot of movement against the Texas D. They’re not elite across NCAA football but Brandon has never faced a game of this magnitude.
That means they’ll try to limit his picks and create more designed quarterback runs.
Manning’s passing touchdown prop could lean Under. Texas can score and Manning can get hot, but an inflated passing TD number on the road against an energized SEC opponent is not great value. If you’re Team Arch, a smarter prop play could be for him to clear his passing-yardage line. The Vols should push #1 Texas enough so that the Longhorns will need to stay aggressive for all four quarters.
The total is high but fair for two sides that can put up numbers. Playing the Under at 56.5 is looking slightly better though. These conference matchups can get tight – crazy crowd, national pressure, CFP spots on the line. A 27-23, 28-24 type of Texas win gets Tennessee bettors home ATS and keeps that Under in play.
Oregon at USC in Prime Time
The Week 4 matchup between #20 Oregon at #12 USC is another huge ranked battle for conference bragging rights.
The spread has been volatile, Oregon opening at -5.5, and the current range is Ducks -2.5 to -3, with USC a very live underdog. Catching points at home, in primetime, while you’re ranked 8 points higher than the favorite doesn’t happen every weekend.
Oregon -3.0 is a defensible position if you’re a bettor who believes the Ducks are just better in the trenches and if you think that’s where the game gets decided. We’d put this one even tighter than a field goal though, and the value might come in other betting areas.
Both teams have offenses averaging more than 500 yards per game, which helps explain the massive 62.5 total. Neither team has faced an opponent this season like they will with each other though.
To a contrarian bettor, that total smells too rich. A 62.5 number already prices in explosive plays with 7-8 touchdowns and almost perfect execution. Like we mentioned on the Vols-Horns game, conference matchups with big stakes can force teams to play tighter.
Coaches too: going for it on 4th and 2 from your own 40 feels different on Saturday night against a conference rival than it does against a non-conference cupcake. More conservative play-calling pushes teams to go Under. Add in USC WR Trent Mosley’s injury and we can see a lower score than expected.
That same logic could apply to player props for the Ducks-Trojans game. At QB and receiver especially, with both Oregon’s starting quarterback Dante Moore and USC’s Jayden Maiava possibly tightening up with huge Big Ten stakes on the line.
Texas A&M vs. LSU in Week 4
Texas A&M at LSU is another massive SEC game that will matter in the playoff conversation.
If you believe in rebound games, LSU would be a lock. The Tigers are licking their wounds after that 32-24 loss to Ole Miss last weekend, and they’ll be looking for someone to take it out on.
Add in the motivation factor on top of that, where LSU can’t afford another loss this season.
Still, those are factors off the field. The value play is Texas A&M +9.0. LSU is the better side talent-wise, but nearly double digits in a ranked SEC matchup is a bit rich. That game against the Rebels was a dogfight too, so the Tigers might not be 100%. The Aggies can also contend on both sides of the ball and should keep this one close.