Seattle-San Francisco headlines a week full of small spreads
Look at the board for NFL Week 5 odds and you know instantly: This is a week for selective betting instead of backing the biggest favorites and the loudest brand names.
The early board has 10 games with spreads of four points or fewer. That’s about as tight a week as you’ll see when it comes to making your NFL betting picks. One game-changing play, mistake or defensive stop can turn a great bet slip into a bad beat.
Plus, we’ve got only three undefeated teams left in the league. It’s the Niners, Chiefs, and (checks notes) the Vikings? Another sign that parity is peaking right now.
Some winning NFL parlays will make for better payouts with these tight spreads and moneylines, so keep an eye on which bets might get you there.
Best Bets
Tampa Bay at Dallas
Ok, the Cowboys-Buccaneers game is not one of the close spreads for Week 5 in the NFL.
Tampa is hurting, missing QB Baker Mayfield and going with Jalon Daniels. Daniels handled himself well last weekend with a conservative playbook against the Packers, but it was another Bucs’ loss that more or less sealed their fate for the season. Now at 0-4, the question of tanking or just bad morale is going to enter every NFL betting fan’s mind when they’re looking at Tampa every weekend.
The Cowboys are coming off a big win over the Texans last weekend. They still have some big holes on D, but that’s less of an issue against a backup QB facing a short week and Thursday Night Football pressure. It’s the Dallas offense that’s rolling right now, especially with CeeDee Lamb lighting up the NFL – he’s first in receptions and yardage in the entire league.
All this justifies the ‘Boys laying 7.5 points at home, and we’re surprised it’s not even higher. This one could be over by halftime.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh -2.5 against Indianapolis is another favorite we like. The Steelers get the scheduling edge, for starters. Indianapolis is coming back from a London game while Pittsburgh played the previous Thursday and has had extra prep time. Pittsburgh has covered both of its first two home games so far, and Aaron Rodgers is making throws that he made 5-6 years ago.
The Steelers don’t need to dominate to win by just a field goal, and live betting this one could get you some interesting lines for the second half as Indy’s legs start to tire out.
Minnesota at New Orleans
The Vikings covered both of their first two road games as a road ‘dog. Now, they’re getting a slight edge at -2.0 against a New Orleans team that just got rocked on Monday Night Football by Atlanta. Chris Olave went off late in the game, and that handcuffs Saints’ QB Tyler Shough if he’s not 100% or isn’t even in the lineup.
The shorter week plus a Vikings defense that is #1 in the NFL in points allowed and 5th in total yards allowed adds up to a solid bet for Minnesota to cover. Sure, they might not really deserve that 4-0 record, but don’t use that against them in a winnable game in the Big Easy.
Upset Picks
San Francisco at Seattle
San Francisco vs. Seattle is a great NFC West battle that could determine the playoff chances for both teams.
Somehow, the Niners are getting a full field goal at +3 currently. This puts them as a top upset call for Week 5.
The 49ers are one of those three unbeaten squads at 4-0. That includes a 3-1 record against the spread and an average victory margin of 14.5 points, tops in the NFL. The oddsmakers must be giving the Seattle home crowd extra respect, plus throwing some the Seahawks’ secondary’s way as well. They lead the NFL for the fewest passing yards allowed, which could bottle up Brock Purdy and his receivers. But that still leaves Christian McCaffrey running the ball and Deebo Samuel underneath to rack up the yards.
Cincinnati at Miami
OK, hear us out. We know it takes stones to bet Miami at all this season. But if you’re going to do it, this could be the time.
Both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are injured heading into the Bengals-Dolphins game. Factor in the Bengals’ 31st spot when it comes to rushing yardage and that’s already a bad combo. Miami covered last weekend against a tough Vikings defense too.
More ammo? If Miami is up late, watch out. Cincy QB Joe Burrow is 1-34 all-time when his Bengals are down with eight minutes or less to play.
Keep Parlays Small and Stackable
For this weekend’s close matchups, you don’t need to swing for the fences. Pairing Pittsburgh at -2.5 with San Francisco moneyline at +124 is reasonable and you’re not just including them to inflate the payout. Adding Minnesota at -1.5 takes that number even higher, with not that much risk. Take what the defense gives you, in NFL coaching terms.