The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and TPC Southwind is the venue.
A rough week can end a player’s season well before Labor Day, and your PGA playoff betting picks need to be dialed in too.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship odds start with Scottie, of course, but your TPC Southwind best bets are farther down the board because of the way the course sets up.
TPC Southwind is a Bigger Test
TPC Southwind isn’t for the specialists. The long drivers with a weak putting game, the short-iron ninjas or hot putters that can’t hit it longer than 290? They’re at a big disadvantage.
The course is a par 70 that rewards complete tee-to-green play instead of just raw distance or a hot putting week alone. TPC Southwind is a waterpark compared to most PGA stops. Not the fun kind either. Water is in play on 11 holes, and the course has the current Tour record for most balls hit into the water since 2003.
Sharps will recognize this right off the bat, while casual bettors will stick to the brand name players. What that much water does is punish aggressive players off the tee. Right away, that’s a signal to lean towards more tactical, cautious golfers and fade players like Chris Gotterup, Jake Knapp, Cameron Young and even, yeah, Rory.
That doesn’t mean any of those pros can’t dial it back and play smart, but their core strengths are more attack-oriented.
The greens are also small by Tour standards. That means it has regularly produced below-average greens-in-regulation numbers. Sloppy approaches or aggressive lines from the rough can turn birdies into bogeys in a flash.
For your betting card, look for the quality iron players who avoid big misses. It’ll help if they have top-15 scramble stats too. Recent winning scores have landed from 15-under to 17-under, but the last three editions have included two playoffs.
Scottie Scheffler Is Back Again, But Price Matters
Scottie Scheffler is coming back to Memphis as the player everyone has to beat. No surprise there. He’s clear market leader week in and week out, including for St. Jude at +500.
There’s no need to overthink Scheffler. His precision off the tee, elite approach play and ability to avoid mistakes set him up perfectly for Southwind. The small Bermuda greens are basically waiting for his smart set-ups.
Scheffler actually missed the cut in 2022 here though, and a number of players like Young, Wyndham Clark and Matt Fitzpatrick are coming in hot. That should set off your betting radar. The overall golf betting issue is not whether Scheffler can win in a given week. He deserves to be the favorite at TPC Southwind. The issue is whether an outright number shorter than +400 gives you enough return.
It’s a 70-man field, including those A-listers we just mentioned. So the smarter, more value-filled play is to use Scheffler more as a prop anchor than an outright winner. That means we like him for a top-10 number around -110 to +110, especially if it’s a parlay leg.
Scheffler is also a strong H2H candidate, especially against players whose games lean heavily on that driving distance or putting saves.
The bottom line: Back the best player in the field when the price is reasonable or attractive for golf props and derivatives. Don’t blindly pay any number just because he’s Scottie Scheffler.
The Outright Board: Favorites And Value
Rory McIlroy skipped this event last year. Rest and schedule management, nothing to do with him being spooked. We are wondering if that skipped event will give him less of an edge just in terms of course knowledge.
Of course McIlroy has the game to overpower any course, but Southwind presents him some pretty unique challenges. Can he keep the ball in play around water? Can he flight wedges into compact targets? Watch the number as we approach tee time on Thursday. Rory is viable as a bet in the +900 (where his number stands currently) to +1200 range, not as an auto-bet because he’s Rory McIlroy.
Past the big two of Scheffler and McIlroy, Xander Schauffele is the more natural Southwind player and at +1200 he’s more than decent value on the outright board. Schauffele’s game is built around the controlled, low-drama golf the course asks for. Schauffele also makes sense for top-10 markets, especially if he’s plus-money before Thursday’s tee time.
Tommy Fleetwood deserves a serious look at his current +2000 or longer. He has the patience and iron consistency for this layout. He’s also the reigning FedEx Cup champ and he needs points to ensure he makes it to the final.
Wyndham Clark offers a mixed bag with a sweet +4000 longshot number attached to his name. Fourth in FedEx Cup points with a hot first half of the year, and he’s this year’s US Open winner, but he’s missed his last two cuts.
St Jude Props and Exotics to Play
The top-20 market for the first event of the FedEx Cup benefits from it being a no-cut playoff event. Every player gets four rounds to recover from one ugly stretch without being sent home Friday night. That top-20 bets useful for steady ball-strikers whose outright upside could be limited by Scheffler, McIlroy and Schauffele – in other words, they’ll still place well while the big dogs eat.
The best approach is to avoid laying massive juice on the obvious stars and instead identify players with a realistic top-20 probability. Look for players in the +120 to +250 range who have strong recent approach play numbers and past success at Southwind or similar testy par-70 tracks.
Corey Conners is the classic candidate here with his consistency (but lack of finishing strength). Russell Henley, Sepp Straka and Fitzpatrick too, although we don’t mind some cash on Fitzpatrick (+2000) as the winner either, with his type of game and solid 2026 so far.
Of all the St. Jude props we like, the simple yes/no bet on whether there will be a playoff to determine the St. Jude Championship winner is a solid play. With the event going to playoffs 4 times in the past six year, the +350 Yes play looks better than a simple coin flip. Those recent finishing scores in the -15 range tell you that many golfers can put up a number here, which makes for a crowded leaderboard on Sunday.