Betting opportunities exist for the flyweight title match and Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy
UFC 331 features the best flyweight fight we’ve seen for a while. The tight UFC 331 odds themselves tell you that both Van and Pantoja are literally 1-2 in the division.
It goes Saturday night, September 19th and the flyweight belt is on the line. Any UFC 331 betting preview will tell you this is a fight of styles more than just talent, with Van’s striking and Pantoja’s elite grappling.
The rest of the UFC 331 fight card has some top fights for the Octagon ahead of the main event, including
Van Has the Edge, But Pantoja Is Live
Joshua Van comes into the UFC 331 main event as the defending flyweight champion. He’s a slight favorite in the rematch against Alex Pantoja, but their first match gives the books little to work with. Which means the smart money might spot some edges.
Their first fight lasted only 26 seconds before Pantoja had to withdraw because of injury. Aside from Masvidal annihilating Askren in 5 seconds back in 2019, anything under half a minute doesn’t provide any of us much data.
This is makes Van vs. Pantoja 2 a fresh matchup.
Van’s case for getting the favorite tag is simple. He’s a more active striker and he can pile up offense without losing his defence. Back in May, in his win over Tatsuro Taira, Van out-struck Taira 131-55. Almost tripling volume against a top contender is a strong signal. The issue with betting on Van is also a lack of data though. His 17-2-0 record means we need to base our bets on half the fights that Pantoja has at 30-6-0.
Pantoja’s route to a win is – coming out of Brazil – obviously more ground-based. He’s a former UFC champion (with 4 title defenses too) who’s still one of the flyweight division’s strongest grappling threats. Pantoja will turn clinch sequences into back takes, scrambles and submission opportunities. All completely opposite of the striking volume that Van brings.
That is why Pantoja’s plus-money tag is so low at +114. You might not see much of an edge on either fighter when it comes to the moneyline.
Best Bets: Other UFC 331 Props
Yeah, the numbers aren’t cheap, but they’re fair. At least based on what we know about the two fighters.
For bettors looking at UFC 331, look at props. It’s where you’ll find more upside.
For method of victory props, Van by decision at +350 is aggressive but interesting. Some will stay away from that number because he’s such a strong, high-volume striker. Looking at his career numbers, he does have 11 wins by KO/TKO, but six wins by decision is still a compelling number. Same for Pantoja, and it fits two of the possible fight scripts. If he wins, it’s coming by submission (+275) or decision (+450).
Those plus-money decision paydays get even more compelling when you consider how closely matched these two fighters are and how their styles contrast. Striker vs. Grappler is an old storyline but it holds up. Both styles will keep the other fighter on his toes and possibly more cautious than if they were going toe-to-toe.
Pantoja’s also the #1 contender in the flyweight division. You know he wants to avenge that early L he took last time. He wants that belt again. If you like motivation as a difference-maker between the top two fighters in the division, then Pantoja’s prop bets look even more interesting.
Tsarukyan-Ruffy Offers a Puncher’s Chance
Arman Tsarukyan is a heavy favorite against Maurício Ruffy in the lightweight co-main event, with odds listed at -345 to Ruffy’s +260 currently.
The matchup explains the gap. Tsarukyan is one of the most complete pressure fighters at 155 and that’s lifted him to become the #2 lightweight contender. He can wrestle, of course, but he can also strike with multiple combinations and basically force opponents to make bad decisions under fatigue. He’s dangerous because he can mix levels and punish opponents who become too focused on defending the takedown, which is still his top move.
Ruffy is the more volatile play. He’s more athletic and has a finishing upside that can make a large underdog tempting in a three-round fight though. His 13 KOs in 14 wins is an eye-popping stat that might be worth a small portion of your bankroll. Ruffy is currently at +390 to win by KO/TKO or DQ.
Still, Tsarukyan can control entire fights with his complete style of fighting. That straight moneyline might not enough ROI for you. That could mean putting him into a parlay for UFC 331 along with some other fights on the card.
Live Betting UFC 331
The temptation on a UFC pay-per-view card is to bet every recognizable name.
The smart money will make some bets pre-fight but will also pass up more instead of getting in on every fight. They’ll also watch live betting for the main event to catch an edge based on the way the fight is going.
If Van keeps the bout in open space and controls the tempo he’ll force Pantoja to shoot from too far away. That’s when Van’s speed and output should take over, and you can catch the better numbers before the books update the odds to reflect what’s happening in the Octagon.
At the same time, you can also score bigger numbers on the ‘dog. That means watching to see if Pantoja gets early body locks and creates extended ground exchanges. That moves you closer to a decision or even a submission by Pantoja.