Preview the final stages of the US Open, including potential championship matchups, outright winners, player props and value bets
US Open tennis odds in 2026 look a lot different than last year.
This year, Djokovic bowed out early. Sinner didn’t even get to see the court. Shelton is rising while Zverev is wobbling.
On the women’s side, US Open finals betting still runs through Sabalenka. She didn’t drop a set until the quarters and looks to be in peak condition. Just keep an eye on her mental game – if she’s facing a top American like Gauff or Pegula, the crowd could get into her head.
Your tennis betting picks for the year’s final Grand Slam shouldn’t mean chasing every big name left in the bracket. While Alcaraz and Sabalenka’s number don’t have much juice, there are plenty of other edges to work with.
Projected Men’s Final: Alcaraz Over Zverev Outright
Alcaraz versus Zverev is still the most likely US Open men’s final, in line with what tennis betting fans and the books expected before the first serve of the tournament. The question is whether Zverev will have anything left in the tank by next weekend. His first and second round matches were not the stuff of a top seed. He needed 10 sets and nearly 10 hours to put away his first two opponents, both unseeded.
Both players’ style (Zverev’s serve-first, heavy baseline pressure and Alcaraz’s speed and variety of shots) work on the hardcourt at Arthur Ashe, so you can’t bet on a style edge for either side.
That leaves talent and endurance as the main factors. Conclusion: Alcaraz. He’s the clear favorite currently, sitting at -170 in US Open men’s singles betting odds to win it all. Zverev’s
US Open futures are next up, way back at +340.
At those odds, the best angle in that matchup might not be the straight moneyline. Zverev can dominate with first serves and backhand exchanges, so if both are working on championship Sunday, look for bets like the Over on Zverev’s total games won.
There’s still that gas in the tank issue though. Look for Alcaraz to win 3-1 in sets if it lands around +275 or better. After those early round marathons and a run through tougher opponents in the quarters and semis, the Russian could stall like a Lada.
Create a Game Script for Betting
You want something that fits a likely script. For a four-set Alcaraz win, you just need to believe Zverev has enough of a serve to grab a set while also knowing Alcaraz has the superior all-court game and has had a much smoother path to the final so far.
The Shelton-Alcaraz quarterfinal matchup could change everything if the American uses this home tournament to break out in a big way. At +320 to Alcaraz’s -420 though, it looks unlikely.
Shelton’s serve does make a set or a tiebreak live though, so if you think he can pull off some longer sets and extend the match, there are some Overs to play with decent numbers attached.
The Shelton “to win a set” bet is only -202 at the moment, so clearly the oddsmakers are respecting his game enough to make things interesting. See if you can use a script along those lines to create more Shelton-friendly bets that don’t necessarily need him to take the outright win.
If you can see it coming and he does pull off a big upset, grab his US Open winner number now at +800 before it shrinks. He’ll have all the momentum of NYC behind him if he takes down the Spaniard.
Women’s Draw: Sabalenka has the Current Form
Aryna Sabalenka is the woman to beat, and the case is simple. She is the No. 1 seed, the two-time defending US Open champion and still has the tournament’s best combination of raw power and hardcourt strength.
Sabalenka isn’t chalk though. This year, the top 6 women’s seeds have made it to the quarterfinals. With that much strength still standing, anything can happen.
The biggest development on the bottom half is Qinwen Zheng’s surprise route to the quarters, including a 7-5, 6-3 win over Swiatek.
Like Shelton on the men’s side, Zheng’s power makes her a legitimate spoiler and she’s the surprise of the tournament. Still, that match against #2 Rybakina could be the end of the Cinderella story.
Coco Gauff is a serious play heading into the second week of the US Open. She put away 14th-seeded Iva Jovic on Sunday night 6-1, 6-4. Gauff’s upside is made for New York. She has elite speed, loves hardcourt tennis, and has a crowd that will be fully behind her in every match, no matter who’s on the other side of the net. The downside is off the court. It’s the pressure of being the top American hope, something she’s managed in the past but has also had issues with.
Best women’s outright bet: Sabalenka to win the title. She is not a bargain-bin pick, but you’ll get a better number now than after the semis.
Projected Women’s Final: Sabalenka Over Gauff
Sabalenka versus Gauff is the US Open women’s final the New York crowd will want, and it’s still a realistic championship matchup. If it happens, Sabalenka should be favored because she power her way around the court and force Gauff to run around.
Gauff can counter with movement and return pressure. The crowd energy lifting her up will be peaking. She does have some muscle memory of winning it all too, taking the US Open title back in 2023 at just 19 years old.
If you think a -150(ish) moneyline isn’t enough ROI to bet on Sabalenka, look at a more expensive number. Sabalenka 2-1 in sets at roughly +250 or better becomes more interesting. Gauff is too athletic and too battle-tested to dismiss completely, but Sabalenka is number one in the world for a reason.
If Sabalenka stumbles before the final, say in the quarters against a scrappy and rising Linda Noskova, everything opens up. Zheng has enough pace to keep matches tight and will have the biggest payday attached to her odds. Jessica Pegula would also be a solid play as she continues to battle for her first Grand Slam and will have the US crowd behind her in every match.