A crowded field for The Chase leaves some top drivers offering good betting value
Sunday’s 2026 Bank of America 400 brings NASCAR’s fall Charlotte race back to the Oval. Confusing 90% of us since it replaces the Roval. Someone needs to talk to NASCAR’s marketing/naming team.
NASCAR’s 2026 Chase runs across 10 races without elimination rounds, making Charlotte a strategically important points opportunity but not as severe as the old Round of 12 cutoff. Drivers still have plenty at stake, but NASCAR bettors need to leave the old must-win storylines behind – this could impact how hard some drivers go, especially in the final laps.
At the same time, the Bank of America 400 odds do depend on desperation, since there’s only four races left after this weekend. Factor that in to find NASCAR picks outside of the Top 3 who might be racing with nothing to lose.
Best Bets: Larson, Bell and Hamlin Top the List
NASCAR fans are getting used to seeing the same names at the top of the board every week.
Kyle Larson is the points leader heading into the race and his +450 reflects that. Not much to say on the steadiest, hottest driver on the circuit in recent months.
Christopher Bell is the next outright play at +500. That’s a big number for any top favorite, but it’s a loaded field and competition is fierce. Bell’s runner-up finish in the spring Charlotte race gives him a real case for taking the fall version.
Hamlin is the trusted, veteran alternative at +500. Tighter odds but a better shot at winning at Charlotte Motor Speedway overall, and that’s still a hefty payout. He finished third in the May race there, which gives you another direct link to a solid track record.
Where the value sits, without ignoring the risk that the dominant drivers will just roll again, is in the next tier.
Mid-Tier is Packed with Value
After Hamlin is where prices get interesting.
Chase Briscoe at +650, looks, on the surface at least, like a steal. He took Vegas just last weekend and proved he can hang with anyone. The catch is that win works against him in a weird way. With the clogged traffic at the top, winning back-to-back in the intermediate oval space is rare in this current car generation.
That’s where Tyler Reddick is currently. Reddick finished fourth in the spring race at Charlotte, one place ahead of Larson. He’s the speed merchant, the one who dominated the Coca-Cola 600 from the pole. It’s the team that might hold him back, with slow stops, pit road penalties and other execution flaws. With just a handful of races left in the Cup Series, pressure gets ratcheted up for everyone, not just the drivers themselves.
Joey Logano at +1600 is a big number, we know. Of all the top drivers, he’s 4th in the current points rankings for The Chase though. Seems that he should have better odds for the 2026 Bank of America 400. It’s his relative lack of baseline horsepower that could hurt him here, but he’s still a great driver tactics-wise. He also finished a disappointing 10th last weekend in Vegas. But no one with even an outside shot at the title is more incentivized to let it all hang out this weekend – he can’t afford any conservative driving if he wants to stay in contention.
William Byron is also a +1600 driver worth a look at least. He’s the one to watch in qualifying especially. If his Hendricks car starts inside the top 5 at Charlotte, he’s a strong front-row driver who can fight off the people behind him. If he’s starting outside the top 5, he’s shown some struggles in cutting through dirty air on intermediate tracks. His desperation might also be a factor if you like factoring in the intangibles. He’s 160 points behind Larson in The Chase and, like Logano, needs to take risks this weekend.
Bank of America 400 Longshots: Give Suárez a Look
Daniel Suárez is the most interesting longshot candidate because he already has a Charlotte oval victory this season. The Coca-Cola 600 ended after 373 of its scheduled 400 laps, with rain removing the final 27 laps from the race. That gives Suárez the W but with an asterisk.
How big that asterisk should be is the question. The result counts, and Suárez deserves credit. He showed for a large percentage of the race that the track at Charlotte suits him. It also showed his Spire Motorsports team’s smarts in tactical fuel and tire strategy. Checking the forecast before betting Suárez might be another angle – if it’s dicey weather, he could be a pick for a few dollars to win the outright or, at the very least, his +200 for a Top 10 finish looks good.
At +6600, it’s on the outer edge of any longshot bet, and some racing betting fans won’t even touch any driver at that number. If you want to go long though,
Use the spring results as a foundation, test them against weekend speed and recent results, and put your money behind a team that you know can handle the pressure of The Chase.